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Memorandum from Rudolph G Penner, Director Congressional Budget Office regarding Revenue Estimate for Auctioning Existing Import Quotas 1 (February 1987)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo10400 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE                                                    Rudolph G Penner
U.S CONGRESS                                                                    Director
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20515
February 27, 1987
MEMORANDUM
TO:        Ev Ehrlich
Elliot Schwartz
Rosemary Marcuss
Kathleen O'Connell
Neil Fisher
FROM:      Stephen Parker
SUBJECT: Revenue Estimate for Auctioning Existing Import Quotas
Chairman Gray of the House Budget Committee has requested an
estimate of the potential revenue effects of auctioning U.S. import quota
rights to the highest bidder. Our analysis shows that about $3.7 billion could
be raised in 1987 if existing import quotas, including voluntary export
restraints (VERs), were auctioned.  Over the three-year period ending in
1989, the period that most of these policies are in effect, a total of $12.3
billion could be collected. Since the levels of many of the existing quotas
are subject to renegotiation after 1989, revenue estimates are not provided
beyond that year.  This memo explains how these revenue estimates are
derived.  No attempt is made to examine the overall merits of this
action. 1/
Potential revenue sources from auctioning import quotas include only
those quantitative barriers to imports that have been formally negotiated
and implemented by the U.S. government. The revenue estimates assume
perfect competition in all markets and no foreign retaliation.   Foreign
governments are presumed to continue to limit their exports to the current
VER levels even if the United States changes the terms of the original
agreements by auctioning the quota rights instead of granting them freely to
1.    The many administrative problems that might arise with the implementation ofa system
of quota auctions are examined in a forthcoming book--Auction Quotas and United
States Trade Policaby C. Fred Bergsten, Jeffrey Schott, Wendy E. Takacs. and Kimberly
A. Elliott of the Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C.

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