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Letter from Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director to Paul Ryan regarding budgetary effects of an alternative policy scenario that would modify CBO's most recent baseline projections (released on January 26, 2010) 1 (February 2010)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo10362 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director U.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515 February 24, 2010 Honorable Paul Ryan Ranking Member Committee on the Budget U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Dear Congressman: As you requested, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has calculated the budgetary effects of an alternative policy scenario that would modify CBO's most recent baseline projections (released on January 26, 2010). As you also requested, we have computed the amount of additional revenues necessary, starting in 2019, to balance the budget in 2020 under that scenario. CBO's Baseline Projections CBO's baseline is constructed under the assumption that current laws and policies remain the same. As a result, that baseline assumes that the major provisions of the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 (EGTRRA) and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003 (JGTRRA) will expire as currently scheduled at the end of this calendar year, and other expiring tax provisions will do so as scheduled. The baseline also assumes that the alternative minimum tax (AMT) will not be modified for tax years beyond 2009. Furthermore, CBO's projections of discretionary spending start with the funding provided to date for fiscal year 2010, including amounts provided for war-related operations; that amount is projected to increase at specified rates of inflation. Under those and other baseline assumptions, CBO projects a federal budget deficit of $1.3 trillion in 2010, and total deficits of $6.0 trillion from 2011 through 2020, including $687 billion in 2020 (see Table 1). 1. The staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation has provided preliminary, rough estimates of the impact of the proposals that would modify the tax code.

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