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Letter from Peter R. Orszag, Director to John M. Spratt regarding The Long-Term Budget Outlook, published in December 2007 1 (March 2008)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo10342 and id is 1 raw text is: March 14, 2008 Honorable John M. Spratt Jr. Chairman Committee on the Budget U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Dear Mr. Chairman: In response to your request, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has analyzed the long-term budgetary effects of several policy scenarios. In The Long-Term Budget Outlook, published in December 2007, CBO presented var- ious measures of long-term (75-year) outcomes for the budget under two projection scenarios: an extended-baseline scenario and an alternative fiscal scenario. The extended-baseline scenario, which adheres closely to current law, follows CBO's 10-year baseline from 2008 to 2018 and then extends the baseline concept in its pro- jections for the rest of the 75-year projection period, to 2082. Under that scenario, the Medicare program continues to operate as specified under current law and the changes in tax rates and in other provisions of the tax code that are specified in current law occur as scheduled. By comparison, the alternative fiscal scenario deviates from CBO's baseline projections even during the next 10 years, incorporating some changes in pol- icy that are widely expected to occur and that policymakers have regularly made in the past. As requested in your letter, CBO has analyzed three variations of the extended-base- line scenario, which would follow the assumptions of that scenario but with the fol- lowing differences: m The first variation would eliminate spending for Medicare Part D (the prescription drug benefit) in 2008 and later;

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