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Letter to the Honorable Robert C. Byrd: An Analysis of the U.S. Military's Ability to Sustain an Occupation of Iraq 1 (September 2003)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo10019 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Director U.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515 September 3, 2003 Honorable Robert C. Byrd Ranking Member Committee on Appropriations United States Senate Washington, DC 20510-6025 Dear Senator: In response to your request, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has analyzed the ability of the U.S. military to sustain an occupation of Iraq. In performing this analysis, CBO has made no assumptions about how long the occupation might last or about the size of the force that might be needed. Over the near term-that is, about the next 12 months-the Department of Defense plans to deploy a substantial fraction of its ground forces for occupation duty in Iraq. Over longer periods, however, the need to maintain training and readiness levels, limit family separation and involuntary mobili- zation, and retain high-quality personnel would most likely constrain the U.S. occupation force to be smaller than it is today (more than 180,000 U.S. military personnel in and around Iraq). Account- ing for those needs, CBO's analysis derives steady-state levels of forces that could be assigned to occupation duty and maintained indefinitely. CBO's analysis considers the costs of various options and their effects on the size of a steady-state occupation force. Several of those options involve using existing forces; others involve creating up to two new Army divisions, which CBO estimates would take five years to accomplish. If all existing U.S. ground combat forces in the active and reserve components were used to support an occupation, with units periodically rotated into and out of Iraq, the steady-state U.S. occupation force that could be sustained over the long term would comprise 67,000 to 106,000 military personnel. At that level, the occupation would cost $14 billion to $19 billion a year. The enclosure describes CBO's analysis, which was prepared by Adebayo Adedeji, Fran Lussier, Paul Rehmus, and Adam Talaber of CBO's National Security Division and by Michelle Patterson and Matthew Schmit of CBO's Budget Analysis Division. If you would like further details, I would

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