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Monthly Budget Review [i] (2008)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo0995 and id is 1 raw text is: Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for November
and the Daily Treasury Statements for December

January 7, 2008

The federal budget deficit was about $107 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2008, CBO estimates about $27
billion more than in the same period last year. Outlays have risen by 9 percent compared with their level in the first three
months of 2007, whereas revenues have grown by about 6 percent. Later this month, CBO will issue new budget
projections for 2008 and the following 10 years.

NOVEMBER RESULTS
(Billions of dollars)
Preliminary
Estimate   Actual    Difference
Receipts            151       151         *
Outlays            252        249        -3
Deficit (-)        -101        -98        3
Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO.
Note: * - between -$500 million and $500 million.
The Treasury reported a deficit of $98 billion for the
month of November. That sum is about $3 billion less
than CBO had estimated on the basis of the Daily
Treasury Statements, primarily because spending was
lower than expected for international assistance and the
Department of Agriculture.
ESTIMATES FOR DECEMBER
(Billions of dollars)
Actual  Preliminary  Estimated
FY2007    FY2008      Change
Receipts            260      276          16
Outlays            218       229          11
Surplus             42        47           5
Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO.
The surplus in December was $47 billion, CBO estimates,
$5 billion more than the surplus recorded in December
2006. The budget results in December tend to be better
than those in many other months because most
corporations make quarterly income tax payments and
withholding for individuals is relatively high because of
year-end bonuses and seasonal employment.
Total receipts in December 2007 were about $16 billion
(or 6 percent) higher than those collected in the previous
December, CBO estimates. Withholding for income and
social insurance (payroll) taxes accounts for that increase,

with a gain of $16 billion, or 10.5 percent. Some of that
growth reflects the fact that December 2007 ended on a
Monday, the biggest withholding day, whereas December
2006 ended on a Friday thus boosting receipts in
December 2007 at the expense of those in early January.
Gross corporate payments, which include the final
estimated payment by most corporations for tax year 2007,
were higher in December 2007 than in December 2006, but
that increase was roughly offset by higher refunds.
Outlays were $11 billion (or 5 percent) higher this
December than in the same month last year, CBO
estimates. A large, one-time receipt and shifts in the
timing of certain payments affected the spending growth.
Outlays in December 2006 were reduced by the receipt of
$12.7 billion from an auction of licenses to use the
electromagnetic spectrum; but, at the same time, about $10
billion in payments were shifted into December 2006
because January 1 is a holiday. In contrast, payment shifts
because of weekends or holidays decreased outlays in
December 2007 by about $9 billion. In the absence of
those factors, outlays in December would have grown by
about 8 percent from 2006 to 2007. Outlays for net interest
on the public debt and the Department of Defense
increased by about $4 billion each compared with spending
last December, while spending for Social Security grew by
about $3 billion.
BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH DECEMBER
(Billions of dollars)
Actual  Preliminary Estimated
FY2007    FY2008     Change
Receipts              574        605        32
Outlays               654        712       59
Deficit (-)           -80       -107       -27
Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO.
The government recorded a deficit of $107 billion for the
first three months of fiscal year 2008, CBO estimates,
compared with a deficit of $80 billion recorded in the same
period last year.

Note:    Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund,
which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

MONTHLY BUDGET REVIEW
Fiscal Year 2008
A Congressional Budget Office Analysis

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