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An Alternative Budget Path Assuming a Reduction in Spending for Military Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and in Support of the Global War on Terrorism [i] (February 24, 2006)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo0889 and id is 1 raw text is: 






AN ALTERNATIVE BUDGET PATH ASSUMING A REDUCTION IN SPENDING FOR
MILITARY ()PERATIONS IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN AND IN SUIPORT oF TIlE
GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM

February 24, 2006

The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) January 2006 baseline includes only part of the
spending that CBO anticipates the Congress will appropriate in this fiscal year for U.S. military
operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and for other eflorts in the war on terrorism. To date, the
Congress has provided $50 billion for those purposes in 2006. The statutory rules that govern
such baseline projections direct that discretionary spending should he projected by assuming that
the most recent year's discretionary budget authority is provided in each Ihture year, with
adjustments to reflect projected inflation-using specified indexes-and other factors (such as
the cost of annualizing adjustments to federal pay). However, relative to those levels, additional
tunling will probahly he needed to finance military activities in 2006 and 2007, CBO expects. In
subsequent years, tie Department of Defense (DoD) may need less money than the amount
bicluded in the baseline if it is able to significantly reduce the number of deployed troops.

To illustrate the potential effect on the deficit from changes in spending tbr those military
activities relative to the current baseline, CBO estimated the budgetary impact of one possible
scenario For future military operations in Iraq and Athanistan and the global war on terrorism.
This scenario is one of many possible scenarios regardhig future spending for those activities and
should not be regarded as an estimate ol'actual war costs or a prediction ol' how much budget
authority DoD will need or request for those activities in the future.

This scenario assumes that military operations in Iraq and Alghanistan and other activities related
to the global war on terrorism decline gradually firom their current levels during 2006, reaching a
steady state after 2010. Under such assumptions, discretionary outlays in 2006 would be $20
billion more than the baseline figures presented in CBO's January 2006 Budget and Economic
Outlook: over the 2007-2016 period, however, outlays would be $140 billion less (see the table,
below). lterest on debt would initially increase because of higher spending over the 2006-2008
period, but lower spending in later years would reduce debt-service costs relative to the amount
in the current baseline. Over the 2007-2016 period, debt-service costs would add $5 billion to the
projected deficit.

hi estimating the spending for this scenario, CBO assumed that about 185,000 active-duty and
reserve personnel would be deployed to Iraq, Afghanistan, and other overseas locations in 2006,
declining to 160.000 in 2007. CB) assumed that the number ol'troops deployed in support of the
global war on terrorism would continue to decline-to about 50,000 by 2010-and remain at that
level for the remainder of the period. While the assumptions about deployed troops for 2006 are
based on current force levels and known DoD plans, the assumptions for subsequent years are
hypothetical. CBO assumed that, throughout the I 0-year projection period, some troops would be
deployed overseas in operations supporting the global war on terrorism, but not necessarily in
Iraq and Afghanistan.

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