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Analysis of Potential Claims under S. 852, the Fairness in Asbestos Injury Resolution Act of 2005 1 (December 2005)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo0874 and id is 1 raw text is: December 19, 2005 Congressional Budget Office ANALYSIS OF POTENTIAL CLAIMS UNDER S. 852, THE FAIRNESS IN ASBESTOS INJURY RESOLUTION ACT OF 2005 As requested by Senators Specter, Leahy, and Feinstein, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has analyzed the report prepared by Bates White, LLC, concerning S. 852, the Fairness in Asbestos Injury Resolution Act of 2005, regarding the potential cost of claims against the asbestos trust fund that would be established by that act. Inl its cost estimate for that legislation, dated August 25, 2005, CBO estimated that the value of valid claims against the fund would total between $120 billion and $150 billion. The Bates White report, which was issued on September 19, 2005, suggested that the cost of claims could be much greater. CBO has discussed the Bates White report with its authors and officials of that firm. It has also met or spoken with a number of other experts with varying views on the asbestos legislation, including Judge Edward Becker, trial lawyers with extensive experience in asbestos litigation, and representatives of NERA Economic Consulting, the Asbestos Study Group, the AFL-CIO, and Legal Analysis Systems. As a result of that review and assessment process, CBO has reached the following conclusions: 0 The Bates White report contains no new information that would cause CBO to revise its cost estimate. 0 The Bates White report is not a cost estimate; its results are therefore not directly comparable with those o1 CBO's cost estimate. Bates White estimated the value of claims that could be eligible for compensation; CBO estimated the value of claims that would receive compensation. This distinction is important because many potential claimants would probably not file claims and not all of the claims filed would be approved. Two elements of the Bates White analysis are particularly important, and contribute significantly to its estimate of potential costs. Bates White assumes that one eligibility requirement in the legislation (weighted work-years of occupational exposure) would not constrain potential claims; Bates White also estimates a prevalence of pleural abnormalities (an eligibility requirement for claimants with lung and other cancers) that is higher than other researchers believe is likely.

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