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Extrapolation of Full-Year Appropriations for 2011 1 (May 2011)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo08018 and id is 1 raw text is: Extrapolation of Full-Year Appropriations for 2011

May 16, 2011
In the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) baseline projections, appropriations for
discretionary programs are generally assumed to grow each year with inflation, as originally
specified in the Deficit Control Act. In March 2011, when CBO prepared its most recent baseline
spanning fiscal years 2011 to 2021, it based its projections of discretionary spending on the
continuing resolution that was in effect through March 18 (Public Law 112-4). Subsequently, on
April 15, full-year appropriations for 2011 were enacted in the Department of Defense and Full-
Year Continuing Appropriations Act, 2011 (P.L. 112-10).
CBO has not prepared new baseline projections incorporating the effects of P.L. 112-10; it will
next update its baseline, as usual, in August. But in response to requests from Congressional
staff, it has extrapolated through 2021 the full-year amounts of discretionary budget authority
provided in P.L. 112-10 and compared the results with its March baseline projections of such
spending (see the table below).' For that comparison, CBO did not update the factors that it uses
to estimate discretionary outlays-the rates at which appropriations are spent, the balances left
from appropriations provided in previous years, and other parameters normally revised during
the preparation of a new baseline.
Relative to the March baseline, P.L. 112-10 reduced discretionary budget authority for 2011 by
$23 billion.2 Nondefense funding was decreased by nearly $25 billion, whereas funding for
defense programs was increased by $2.4 billion. The largest reductions in funding apply to high-
speed rail programs ($2.9 billion), the Census Bureau ($1.8 billion), the Public Health and Social
Services Emergency Fund ($1.6 billion), and state and tribal assistance ($1.3 billion).
Total discretionary outlays in 2011 will be $3.2 billion higher as a result of the legislation, CBO
estimates-an increase of $7.5 billion for defense programs, partially offset by a net reduction of
$4.4 billion in other spending. (Part of the reason that total outlays will increase this year is that
some defense funding was shifted from slower-spending to faster-spending activities.) CBO had
previously estimated that the full-year appropriation act will yield a net reduction of $0.4 billion
in nonemergency outlays in 2011.3 The comparison shown here is different: It includes
emergency appropriations, excludes the effects of changes in mandatory programs, and
incorporates adjustments to various estimating parameters that were applied to the appropriation
act to make them consistent with the March 2011 baseline.
1 Budget authority (also referred to here as funding) is the authority provided by law to incur financial obligations
that will result in immediate or future outlays of federal government funds.
2 In addition, the law reduced 2011 budget authority for mandatory programs (which are governed by permanent
laws) by $11 billion relative to CBO's March baseline. That reduction will have little effect on mandatory outlays
over the 2012-2021 period, CBO estimates. Furthermore, provisions reducing discretionary budget authority by
another $4 billion had been included in the continuing resolution through March 18 and were already reflected in
CBO's baseline projections.
For additional information about CBO's estimates of enacted 2011 appropriations, see
www.cbo.cov/ftpdocs/121xx/docl2143/additional info hrl473.pdf.

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