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A CBO Paper: Subsidy Estimates for FHA Mortgage Guarantees [i) (November 2003)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo0765 and id is 1 raw text is: A CBO PAPER Subsidy Estimates for FIA Mortgage Guarantees November 2003 Note Numbers in the text and tables of this report may not sum to totals because of rounding. Preface Federal Housing Administration (FHA) guarantees of hone mortgages account for more than half of all federally insured loans, and net budgetary collections from that program are expectcd to offset about hal' of the cost of all other federal loan guarantees. Actual net receipts Ir FlIA, however, have fallen short of expectations for the past decade. That discrepancy between projected and realized cash inflows has raised doubts about the reliability of budget estimates for the program. This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis of FHA's subsidy estimates is one part of a response to a request from the House Budget Committee to review the budgetary treatment of federal credit programs and possible improvements in and extensions of current practice. The paper draws on research begun in response to a request from the House Committee on Banking arnd Financial Services. Contsistent with CBO's mandate to provide objec ive, impartial analysis, this paper makes no recomrmenlations. Using a model developed by Charles A. Capone Jr., formerly of C0, tie slaff of CBO's Microccotnomic and Financial Studies Division prepared [his report under the direction of Marvin IPhanp arld Roger I litcher. Many others at CBO contributed to the model, including Bob Arnold, Uftuk Demiroglu, Robert Dennis, Deborah Lucas, and John Peterson. The sub- model for regional house-price movements was developed by Malgorzata Klosek. Research assistance and computer programming support were provided by Jenny Au, Scan Corcoran, Lori Ellebr'acht, Carol Frost, Erin Hirsch, Joseph Nichols, DaRon Ross, and Errick Simmons. Information technology support was provided by Georgia Brown, Eric Gui lie, Guanli Lu, and Rick Williams. The report also benefited from comments by CBO analysts Perry Beider, Kim Cawley, Sunila D'Monte, Cary Elliot, Peter Fontaine, Mark Hadley, Susanne Mehlman, Albert Metz, Mark Musell, Elizabeth Robinson, and David Torregrosa. CBO is grateful to FIlA for providing access to the data required for this study and to Judy May, Dominic Stasulli, and Ed Szymanoski of FHA for their help. Many other staff members at IA and the Department of Housing and Urban Development were also helpful, including Harold Bunce, Darryl Getter, lan Keith, and Maude Williams.

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