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A CBO Report: CBO's Economic Forecasting Record [i) (October 2003)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo0760 and id is 1 raw text is: CBO REPORT CBO's Economic Forecasting Record An evaluation ot the economic forecasts CBO made from January 1976 through January 2001 October 2003 CONTENTS Sources of Data for the Evaluation Measuring the Quality of Forecasts The Effects of Business Cycles and Changes in the Trend Rate of Productivity Growth CBO's Forecasting Record Appendix: Choosing Sources of Historical and Forecast Data Tables la. Summary Measures of Forecast Performance for Two-Year Averages lb. Summary Measures of Forecast Performance for Five-Year Averages 2. CBO, Administration, and Blue Chip Forecasts of Two-Year Average Growth Rates for Real Output 3. COO, Administration, and Blue Chip Forecasts of Two-Year Average Growlh Rates for Nominal Output 4. COO, Administration, and Blue Chip Forecasts of Two-Year Average Inflation in the Consumer Price Index 5. CBO, Administration, and Blue Chip Forecasts of Two-Year Average Nominal Interest Rates on 1hree- Month Treasury Bills 6 CBO, Administration, and Blue Chip Forecasts of Two-Year Averages for Nominal Long-Term Interest Rates 7. CBO, Administration, and Blue Chip Forecasts of Two-Year Average Heal Interest Rates on Three-Month Treasury Bills 8. CIO, Administration, and Blue Chip Forecasts of the Difference Between Two-Year Average Inflation in the CPI and in the GNP or GDP Price Index 9. CBO and Administration Forecasts of the Two-Year Change in Wage and Salary Disbursements Plus Corporate Book Profits as a Share of Output 10. CBO, Administration, and Blue Chip Projections of Five-Year Average Growth Rates for Real Output 11. COO, Administration, and Blue Chip Projections of Five-Year Average Growth Rates for Nominal Output 12. CBO, Administration, and Blue Chip Projections of the Difference Between Five-Year Average Inflation in the CPI and in ihe GNP or GDP Price Index 13. COO and Administration Projections of the Five-Year Change in Wage and Salary Disbursements Plus Corporate Book Profits as a Share of Output Figures

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