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The Uncertainty of Budget Projections: A Discussion of Data and Methods [i] (April 2003)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo0742 and id is 1 raw text is: The Uncertainty of Budget Projections: A Discussion of Data and Methods April 2003 Notes Unless otherwise indicated, all years referred to in this report are fiscal years. Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding. CONTENTS Stagc One: Constructing theMeasures of hIaccuracies Revenues Outlays Primary Budget Surplus or Deficit Stage Two: Constructing Probability Distributions The Statistical Model for Inaccuracies in the Primary Surplus or Deficit Calculating the Distribution of Inaccuracies from the Model Uncertainty in Projections of the Total Surplus or Deficit Tables I. How CBO's January 1994 Revenue Projection Was Adjusted for Subsequent Legislation 2. Inaccuracies in CBO's Baseline Projections of Revenues That Are Attributable to Economic and Technical Factors 3. Inaccuracies in CBO's Baseline Projections of Outlays That Are Attributable to Economic and Technical Factors 4. Inaccuracies in CBO's Baseline Projections of the Primary Surplus or Deficit

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