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Sequestration Update Report for Fiscal Year 2003 [i] (August 2002)

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    Sequestration Update Report for Fiscal Year
                                           2003


                                      August 15, 2002



Under the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 (as amended by the Budget
Enforcement Act of 1997), the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issues a sequestration update report
each year on August 15. This report provides current estimates of discretionary spending and the limits
on that spending for 2002 and 2003. It also updates the pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) scorecard for
legislation enacted through August 14, 2002, that affects mandatory spending or revenues.

The Deficit Control Act has two mechanisms to govern federal spending, both enforced through
sequestration (a cancellation of budgetary resources). Section 251, which expires on September 30,
2002, sets limits on the spending provided through the annual appropriations process. If estimated
discretionary spending exceeds those limits, the act prescribes a sequestration to eliminate the excess.
Section 252 established a PAYGO scorecard to record the projected five-year budgetary effects of each
piece of legislation that affects mandatory spending or revenues. If such legislation is estimated to result
in a net increase in the deficit or decrease in the surplus, the act calls for reductions in mandatory
programs (that are not otherwise exempt) sufficient to offset that change. Although legislation enacted
after September 30 will no longer be recorded on the PAYGO scorecard, the possibility of a PAYGO
sequestration will continue through 2006 as a result of legislation enacted before the end of fiscal year
2002.

The limits on discretionary spending apply to four categories for 2002: overall discretionary, highway,
mass transit, and conservation. CBO estimates that spending from appropriations enacted to date is
within the limits. Limits for the two transportation categories continue through 2003, and caps for
conservation spending extend through 2006. However, when section 251 expires, those caps will
become moot.

Legislation affecting mandatory spending or revenues enacted during the current session of Congress
has increased the projected deficits for 2002 and 2003 by $52.7 billion and $53.5 billion, respectively.
The largest contributor to those amounts is the Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002 (Public
Law 107-147), which accounts for an estimated $50.9 billion this year and $42.9 billion next year. That
law, also known as the economic stimulus package, was designated an emergency requirement, thereby
excluding it from the PAYGO scorecard. To avoid a PAYGO sequestration, the Congress would need to
eliminate or offset the balances for 2002 and 2003--a total of $123.1 billion (mostly from legislation
enacted in previous years)--before it adjourns this year.


Discretionary Sequestration Report

On February 1, 2002, CBO published its preview sequestration report for fiscal year 2003; shortly
thereafter, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued its equivalent report. Because OMB's

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