About | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline
LOG IN
LOG IN

CBO's Economic Forecasting Record: A Supplement to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2003-2012 [i] (February 2002)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo0701 and id is 1 raw text is: CBO's Economic Forecasting Record A Supplement to The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2003-2012 February 2002 Since publishing its first macroeconomic forecast in 1976, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has compiled a forecasting track record comparable in quality with those of a sizable sample of private-sector forecasters as well as five Administrations. CBO's misestimates for two-year forecasts made between 1982 and 1999 did not differ markedly either from those of the Administration or from the average of the 50 or so forecasts that have made up the Blue Chip survey over the years. Comparing CBO's forecasts with those of the Blue Chip consensus suggests that when CBO's economic predictions missed the mark by a margin wide enough to contribute to sizable misestimates of the surplus or deficit, those inaccuracies probably reflected limitations that confronted all forecasters. That result is not surprising because all forecasters, when making their predictions, have the same basic information available about the state of the economy, which they may then interpret differently. Moreover, CBO examines other forecasts when constructing its own; in turn, CBO's forecast may affect others in a similar way. Overview For forecasts looking two years ahead--those that are most important for the budget year being considered by the Congress--CBO has been slightly more accurate than the various Administrations over the past two decades (see Tablej ). The differences between the two forecasters are small, however, especially when compared with the size of the forecast misestimates. Furthermore, for the past six two-year forecasts analyzed here, there has been virtually no difference in overall forecast accuracy between CBO and the Administration. Also, CBO's forecasts have been about as accurate as the Blue Chip's average forecasts in general. Table I. Summary Measures of Forecast Performance (In percentage points) CBO Administration Blue Chip Two-Year Averages Growth Rate for Real Output (1982-1999) Mean error -0.7 -0.5 -0.8 Mean absolute error 1.0 1.1 1.0 Root mean square error 1.3 1.4 1.2 Growth Rate for Nominal Output (1982-1999)

What Is HeinOnline?

HeinOnline is a subscription-based resource containing thousands of academic and legal journals from inception; complete coverage of government documents such as U.S. Statutes at Large, U.S. Code, Federal Register, Code of Federal Regulations, U.S. Reports, and much more. Documents are image-based, fully searchable PDFs with the authority of print combined with the accessibility of a user-friendly and powerful database. For more information, request a quote or trial for your organization below.



Short-term subscription options include 24 hours, 48 hours, or 1 week to HeinOnline.

Purchase Access

Contact us for annual subscription options:

Contact Us

Already a HeinOnline Subscriber?

Log In

profiles profiles most