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Sequestration Preview Report for Fiscal Year 2003 [i] (February 2002)

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  Sequestration Preview Report for Fiscal Year
                                         2003

                                    February 1, 2002



Under the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 (as amended), the
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issues a sequestration preview report before the President
submits his annual budget to the Congress. This report, which fulfills that requirement, provides
estimates of the discretionary spending caps for 2002 and 2003 and the pay-as-you-go (PAYGO)
scorecard through January 31, 2002.
Although limits on certain types of discretionary spending continue after fiscal year 2002, the
provisions of law that set and govern those limits (contained in section 251 of the Deficit Control
Act) will expire on September 30, 2002. As a result, when section 251 expires, those caps become
moot.

Nevertheless, for 2002, the limits on discretionary spending apply to four categories: overall
discretionary, highway, mass transit, and conservation. Both CBO and the Office of Management and
Budget (OMB) estimate that spending resulting from legislative action to date is within the limits for
each category. Under current law, caps for the two transportation categories continue through 2003,
and caps for conservation spending extend through 2006.
Under section 252 of the Deficit Control Act, the estimated budgetary effects of mandatory spending
or revenue legislation will no longer be recorded on the PAYGO scorecard after fiscal year 2002,
effectively shutting down the PAYGO system for new laws. However, the possibility of a
sequestration--or cancellation of budgetary resources--of certain mandatory programs will continue
through 2006 as a result of PAYGO legislation enacted before the end of 2002. Although recently
enacted legislation eliminated the PAYGO balance for 2002, a balance of $110.7 billion remains for
2003.


Overview of Sequestration Procedures

The Deficit Control Act, as amended by the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990, has two mechanisms
that govern federal spending, both enforced through sequestration. Section 251 set limits on the
spending provided through the annual appropriation process. If estimated discretionary spending
exceeds those limits, the act prescribes a sequestration to eliminate the excess. Section 252
established a PAYGO scorecard to record the projected five-year budgetary effects of each piece of
legislation that affects mandatory spending or revenues. If such legislation is estimated to result in a
net increase in the deficit (or reduction in the surplus), the act calls for reductions in mandatory
programs (not otherwise exempt) sufficient to offset that change in the deficit (or surplus).


Discretionary Sequestration Report

In January 2002, CBO and OMB published their final sequestration reports for fiscal year 2002. In

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