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An Analysis of the President's Mid-Session Review of the Budget for Fiscal Year 2001 1 (September 2000)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo0673 and id is 1 raw text is: Page 1 of 25 AN ANALYSIS OF THE PRESIDENT'S MID-SESSION REVIEW OF THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 2001 Corrected September 6, 2000 ERRATA This document supersedes the previous version of this report, dated July 28, 2000, which incorrectly estimated surpluses in Medicare's Hospital Insurance trust fund under the proposals in the Mid-Session Review. The corrections included here produce slightly lower on-budget surpluses and slightly higher off-budget surpluses but have no effect on total surpluses. The President is required by law to submit a budget by early February of each year, as well as a supplemental update before July 16. The update, in general, has contained revised estimates of the budget surplus, receipts, outlays, and other summary information, with only minor changes, if any, in legislative proposals. However, both last year and this year, the Mid-Session Review has also contained significant new policy proposals. Therefore, as requested by the House and Senate Committees on the Budget, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has analyzed the Administration's Mid-Session Review of the fiscal year 2001 budget. CBO estimates that the policies reflected in the Mid-Session Review would result in cumulative total budget surpluses of $1.4 trillion over the 2001-2005 period and $3.2 trillion over the 2001-2010 period (see Tables 1 and 2). Those estimates exceed the corresponding projections by the Administration by $0.2 trillion and $0.3 trillion, respectively, mostly because CBO projects slightly higher revenues over those periods. On-budget surpluses over the five-year and 10-year periods would reach $159 billion and $349 billion, respectively. (Revenues and spending for Social Security and the Postal Service are currently excluded from the on-budget totals; the Administration would do the same for Medicare's Hospital Insurance program.) TABLE 1. COMPARISON OF CBO'S AND THE ADMINISTRATION'S ESTIMATES OF THE PRESIDENT'S MID-SESSION REVIEW (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars) Total Total, 2001- 2001- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2010 CBO's Estimate of the Administration's Mid-Session Review Revenues 2,008 2,119 2,203 2,285 2,379 2,477 2,571 2,680 2,798 2,929 3,067 11,462 25,508 Outlays 1,788 1,845 1,924 1,979 2,057 2,140 2,195 2,264 2,357 2,450 2,549 9,946 21,761 Reserve for America's Future n.a. 20 25 25 26 27 49 75 83 85 85 123 500 Surplus 221 254 254 280 296 309 328 341 358 393 433 1,394 3,246 On-budget 47 27 18 37 40 38 35 37 31 40 47 159 349 Off-budget' 174 227 237 244 256 272 293 305 327 353 385 1,235 2,898

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