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The Budget for Fiscal Year 2000: An End-of-Session Summary 1 (December 1999)

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.The Budget for Fiscal Year 2000: An End-of-Session Summary


  The Budget for Fiscal Year 2000: An End-of-

                             Session Summary


                                    December 2, 1999



The 106th Congress concluded its first session on November 22 after passing numerous pieces of
legislation in the last few days. Among them was H.R. 3194 (Public Law 106-113, the consolidated
appropriation act), which comprises five of the 13 regular appropriation acts and a number of other
acts. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has completed its analysis of that legislation and has
updated its previous baseline projections for fiscal year 2000, which were issued on July 1, 1999, to
reflect the budgetary impact of all legislation passed since that date. This memorandum summarizes
the results of CBO's analysis. (The analysis used the same economic and technical assumptions as the
July report. Those assumptions will be revised in January, when CBO produces its new baseline
projections.)

Much of the recent budget debate has centered around two distinct objectives. The first is to adhere to
the caps on discretionary spending specified in the Balanced Budget Act of 1997. The second is to
avoid an on-budget deficit--that is, the need to use funds generated by the Social Security trust funds
to finance spending for programs other than Social Security. Under CBO's most recent estimating
assumptions, neither objective will be attained for fiscal year 2000. Even after increasing the caps to
accommodate emergency designations and certain other spending, as required by law, both budget
authority and outlays for discretionary programs will probably exceed the caps for 2000 by about $7
billion and $17 billion, respectively. Furthermore, recent legislation has more than eliminated the $14
billion on-budget surplus projected under CBO's baseline assumptions in July. Using the same
economic and technical assumptions and incorporating the effects of those legislative actions, CBO
estimates a $17 billion on-budget deficit for 2000. However, in light of recent economic trends, the
baseline estimates that CBO will release in January are likely to present a more favorable picture.

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) is unlikely to determine that a sequestration is
necessary because its estimates of outJ-ys from the appropriation bills are lower than CBO's and
because it may categorize certain provisions as offsets to discretionary spending that CBO views as
affecting direct spending or revenues. Congressional scoring of the recent legislation also presents a
somewhat different picture. With the scorekeeping adjustments specified by Congress--totaling $4.4
billion in budget authority and $23.3 billion in outlays--the outlay caps would not be exceeded, and the
on-budget accounts would show a surplus.


The Omnibus Spending Package

H.R. 3194 contains the regular appropriations for the District of Columbia and incorporates by
reference nine other bills--four regular appropriation acts (Commerce, Justice, State; Foreign
Operations; Interior; and Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education), a miscellaneous
appropriation act, and four other acts. Table I shows CBO's estimate of the impact of that legislation


Page I

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