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Estimating the Costs of One-Sided Bets: How CBO Analyzes Proposals with Asymmetric Uncertainties [i] (October 1999)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo06562 and id is 1 raw text is: ESTIMATING THE COSTS OF ONE-SIDED BETS: HOW CBO ANALYZES PROPOSALS WITH ASYMMETRIC UNCERTAINTIES October 1999 PREFACE In providing the Congress with formal and informal estimates of the costs of legislative proposals, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has determined that a small fraction of such proposals cannot be appropriately analyzed by using traditional methods. In keeping with CBO's practice of disclosing its analytical assumptions and methods, this memorandum outlines an alternative method known as probabilistic estimating that the agency has developed and used occasionally since 1995. Perry Beider of CBO's Natural Resources and Commerce Division wrote the memorandum under the direction of Jan Paul Acton, Roger Hitchner, and David Moore, with assistance from Robert Arnold, David Hull, Craig Jagger, Deborah Kalcevic, Mary Maginniss, and Judith Ruud. Leah Mazade edited the memorandum, Chris Spoor proofread it, and Angela Z. McCollough prepared it for publication. Laurie Brown prepared the electronic versions for CBO's World Wide Web site (www.cbo.gov). CONTENTS INTRODUCTION COST ESTIMATING AND ONE-SIDED BETS OVERVIEW OF THE PROBABILISTIC APPROACH EXAMPLES.OF THE PROBABILISTIC APPROACH Case Study 1: Setting Agricultural Price Support Rates Case Study 2: Changing the Fcrmula for Interest Rates on Student Loans Case Study 3: Paying for Deposit Insurance Losses CONCLUSION

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