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The Budget Adjusted for Effects of the Business Cycle 1 (July 1999)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo06551 and id is 1 raw text is: iThe Budget Adjusted for Effects of the Business Cycle THE BUDGET ADJUSTED FOR EFFECTS OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE July 30, 1999 Preface This report provides material that supplements the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) The Economic and Budget Outlook: An Update (July 1, 1999). In accordance with CBO's mandate to provide objective and impartial analysis, this document contains no recommendations. The analysis was prepared by Frank Russek of CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division under the supervision of Robert Dennis. David Arnold provided research assistance. Sherry Snyder edited the report, and Liz Williams proofread it. Dorothy Kornegay and Linda Lewis Harris assisted in the production of the report. Kathryn Quattrone prepared the final version for publication, and Laurie Brown prepared the electronic versions for CBO's World Wide Web site (www.cbo.gov). Dan L. Crippen Director July 30, 1999 Much of the budget surplus projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) for this year and next arises because the economy is operating at an unsustainably high rate. Under current tax and spending policies, CBO projects that the budget surplus will amount to $120 billion in fiscal year 1999 and $161 billion in 2000. But when the economic effects that are likely to be transitory are taken into NOTES The figure in this report uses shaded vertical bars to indicate periods of recession. Those bars extend from the peak to the trough of the recession. Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding. Page I

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