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Extended Discussion of CBO's July 1999 Economic Outlook 1 (July 1, 1999)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo0652 and id is 1 raw text is: , Extended Discussion of CBO's July 1999 Economic Outlook EXTENDED DISCUSSION OF CBO'S JULY 1999 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK July 1, 1999 Preface This report provides an extended discussion of the state of the economy and tile latest economic forecast and projections of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). A shorter version of the report appears in CBO's The Economic andBudget Outlook: An Update (July 1, 1999). In accordance with CBO's mandate to provide objective and impartial analysis, this report contains no recommendations. The analysis was prepared by CBO's Macroeconomic Analysis Division under the direction of Robert Dennis, Kim J. Kowalewski, and John F. Peterson. David Brauer was the lead author for the report. Michael Simpson and Robert Arnold carried out the economic forecast and projections. Douglas Hamilton, Juann Hung, Mark Lasky, Randy Mariger, Angelo Mascaro, Benjamin Page, Frank Russek, Matthew Salomon, John Sturrock, and Christopher Williams contributed to the analysis. David Arnold, Ezra Finkin, and Michael Simpson provided research assistance. An early version of the economic forecast underlying this report was discussed at a meeting of CBO's Panel of Economic Advisers on June 2, 1999. Members of the panel are Alan J. Auerbach, Martin N. Baily, Jagdish Bhagwati, Michael Boskin, Barry P. Bosworth, John Cogan, Robert Dederick, William C. Dudley, Martin Feldstein, Robert J. Gordon, David Hale, Robert E. Hall, N. Gregory Mankiw, Allan Meltzer, William Niskanen, William D. Nordhaus, June E. O'Neill, Rudolph Penner, James Poterba, Robert Reischauer, Joel Slemrod, Tohn Taylor, and Martin B. Zimmerman. Rudy Boschwitz, John Makin, Mark McClellan, William McGuire, and Joan Trauner attended as guests. Although those NOTES Unless otherwise indicated, all years referred to in this report are calendar years. The figures in this report use shaded vertical bars to indicate periods of recession. Those bars extend from the peak to the trough of the recession. Unemployment rates throughout the report are calculated on the basis of the civilian labor force. Numbers in tie text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding. Page I

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