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Revised Baseline Budget Projections for Fiscal Years 1999-2008 1 (March 3, 1998)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo06393 and id is 1 raw text is: *-Revised Baseline Budget Projections for Fiscal Years 1999-2008 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE REVISED BASELINE BUDGET PROJECTIONS FOR FISCAL YEARS 1999-2008 MARCH 3, 1998 In the course of preparing its annual analysis of the President's budget, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) typically updates its baseline projections to take account of new information from the President's budget and other sources. The revised March projections usually become the baseline for the budget resolution. CBO's new March projections are not materially different from those issued in its January 1998 report, The Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 1999-2008. The only major change since January is an increase in revenues from 1998 through 2000 to reflect more rapid inflows into the Treasury than either CBO or the Administration had anticipated (see Table 1). That change, however, is enough to shift CBO's projections from small annual deficits to small annual surpluses during those years. CBO expects that the budget surplus for this year will be nearly $8 billion. Assuming that current policies do not change and that the economy stays on the anticipated course, surpluses are projected to rise eventually to $138 billion in 2008. Both federal spending and revenues are expected to total around $1.7 trillion this year--or approximately 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Under CBO's baseline assumptions, projected outlays as a percentage of GDP fall gradually to 18.3 percent by 2008. Revenues decline to 19.3 percent of GDP by 2003 and remain at that level through 2008 (see Table 2). Table 1. Changes in CBO Baseline Deficits or Surpluses Since January 1998 (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 January 1998 Baseline Deficit (-) or Surplus -5 -2 -3 14 69 54 71 75 115 129 138 Technical Changes Revenues 15 10 5 a a a a a a a a Outlays Discretionary a a a a a a a a a a a Mandatory a a 1 2 4 1 2 1 a a a Net interest 1 a -1 -1 -1 - 1 -1 a a a a Subtotal 2 -1 a 1 3 1 1 1 a a a Total Technical Changes 13 11 5 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 a a a March 1998 Baseline Surplus 8 9 1 13 67 53 70 75 115 130 138 Page I

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