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1 Ames Grawer & Cameron Kimble, Crime in 2018: Updated Analysis 1 (2018)

handle is hein.brennan/crmupda0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Crime in 2018: Updated Analysis by Ames Grawert and Cameron Kimble* In September, the Brennan Center analyzed available crime data from the nation's 30 largest cities, estimating that these cities would see a decline in crime and murder in 2018. Our report, Crime and Murder in 2018: A Preliminary Analysis, concluded that crime and murder in 2018 are again declining nationwide, continuing the historic downward trend.1 This analysis updates the September report and finds that, where data were available, rates of crime, violent crime, and murder in major American cities are estimated to decline through the end of 2018. However, murder rates in some cities remain above 2015 levels, demon- strating a continued need for evidence-based solutions to violent crime. Tables 1 and 2 show conclusions in line with those in the initial report. Murder: The 2018 murder rate in the 30 largest cities is estimated to decline by nearly 6 percent. Large decreases this year in Chicago and San Francisco, as well as moderate decreases in other cities such as Baltimore, contributed to this decline. The murder rate in Chicago - which increased significantly in 2015 and 2016 - is projected to decline by 18.1 percent in 2018. The murder rate in San Francisco is estimated to * The authors thank Adureh Onyekwere for her research and editing assistance. fall by nearly 27 percent. Baltimore's 2018 murder rate is projected to decline by 7.4 percent. Some cities are projected to see their murder rates rise, including Washington, D.C. (by 39.5 percent), and Houston (by 22.6 percent). Further study is needed to better understand the causes of these rises. Crime: The overall crime rate in the 30 largest cities in 2018 is estimated to decline slightly from the previous year, falling by 1.8 percent. While this conclusion is based on preliminary data, if the trend holds, the crime rate will fall to its lowest since at least 1990. Violent Crime: Violent crime rates are projected to de- cline in the majority of the 30 largest cities through the end of 2018. Overall, the violent crime rate is estimat- ed to decrease by 2.7 percent, continuing a downward trend from 2017. Estimates of crime and violent crime are based on data from 22 of the nation's 30 largest cities; estimates of mur- der include data from all 30 cities. While the estimates in this report are based on early data, previous Brennan Center reports have correctly estimated the direction and magnitude of changes in major-city crime rates.2 The preliminary 2018 analysis is available here. In addition to providing updated data from city law enforcement agencies, this report incorporates recently released information from the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports and uses it as a baseline for projections. As a result, data in Tables 1 and 2 are best compared to the previous update of this report, which can be found here. CRIME IN 2018 I 1

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