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1 1 (January 2024)

handle is hein.amenin/aeiaeuq0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Key Points 0 In 2023, China's documented global investrent grew strong y o}: a noor 2022. The eiectr i vehicle supply chain, starting with nickel rn.iing In indonesia, attracted th rns funds China's global construction was flat, but implementation of construction taoes onger. A surge ater the end of zero-COVD oolicies makes sense, But official Chinese outbound investment rerm'a!ns exaggeratod b-<ause the Ministry of Comrme'rc caims COVia19 wA15s good for outbound investment in 2-u20-21 Overvhelming evidence says oherwise. ± Chinese investment in the U In 2023 was low In contrast, Aeri car investrnent in China in 2023 is anknown and mr-nican investment in Chnese technology in any year is unknown. This Zack of :ntormation s more iressing than China s current global spendirng. China's outward investment and construcion in 2023 mirrored its economy a' home. Last year was certainly better than 2022, but not as good as hoped. The world is different than it was before COVID-iQ, and it will be difficult for China to re-craft authentic overseas investment and construction levels nmatihino the middle oos. China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) insists COVID and zero-COVIT policies were good for the country's outward investment, with a 2o percent increase in annual spending from 2019 to 2022.1 This is not credible. The ministry claims the majority was sent to Hong Kong (population ri miliion), followed by offshore rnancial centers like the British Virgin islands, wich obscures capital flows. The next lead- ing recipients were rich countries suchx as the US. but these report weak inbound Chinese inestmuent. There are other pockets of strength, but not nearly enougi to justify Betiing's portraiti ,he obvious conclusion is Chin-as recent onrward investment data have been altered, no longcer repre- senting wht they did wren activity was more robust. Verification is challenging because MOFCOM. does not doc urent individual tranrsactions. The China Global investment 'Tracker (C=.') does, using disclosures from the companies involved. The CGIT is the most complete public record of China's inwestment and construction overseas, with 4,300 transactIons From 200R through 202 .3 T hriugh mg, it roughly matcned IOFCOM.'s outbound investment igures. The CtGIT does not include transactions smaller than. $9 million, hence missing more if average transaction size falls. It understates the People's Riepubic of China's (PRC) aetiviry when small deals are more appealing. But large deals should be visible in corporate statements, and starting in 2020, they are not, Ulike MOFCOM, the CGIT shows an. unsur- prising sharp drop in inestmernt in 2020-22 versus

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