About | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline
LOG IN
LOG IN

1 1 (November 2022)

handle is hein.amenin/aeiaemc0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Key Points 4 Chinese economic poicy is seen asincreasingly imponrt, iuding to global investors. But trnsarency has not risen in tandem, and policy is frequently misinterpreted. t Monetary data are a better ouide than official stmatemnts, whach are ofter empty. But even the numbers can misiead, due to the People's Republic of China's size. Monetary poiicy would have to change sharply to constitute effective stimulus. On tne fisca, side, China faces long-term and largo structu: ral deficits due to an aging population. These are less a boost to the present economy than a constraint on the future economy. 4 Foreign reserves and capital controls continue to protect the renminbi from unwanted instability. The cost is that renninbi internationalization remains nearly rmeaningless. China's economnic polic yrnlaking receives far more attention than it did .5-2o years ago. The obvious reason is the country is more inportant to the world. Also, its economy has struggled in various ways since roughiy 2014, and announced policy change in China is more frequent. Less obvious, but important in the past few years, is that Chi- nese companies have seen an influx of foreign camtal,' and foreign analysts are now much more aggressive in touting supposedly meaningfl cievelopments. The additional attention has not translated to additional insight. Instead, as with many assess- ments of the People's Republic of China's (PRC economic performance, observers tend to rely on government claims or mpihcitly treat the economy and financial system as simiar to those ot the US or EU. Questionable analysis ranges from touting pledged large-scale spending as effective stimulus to anticipating a financial crisis to freuntly fore- casting that the value of the renminbi is about to plummet) Better interpretation would be valuable. Beijing vically iNsists contemporary indicators are sta- ble, and those official measurements of real-worid conditions can be less informative than policy inplemn entation. Monetary and fiscal policy are the PRC's primary management tools, and data per- taning to them are more reliable than those for economic outcomes. Beyond suggesting how the country's economy is truly faring the two tools bear on debt accumulation a crucial factor in long- term growth3 Bank lending and value-added taxa- tion are the key individual indicators for them. With pro-market reform off the table for 35 years and counting,4 po'iy options are narrow. China's impressive gross numbers work for and against it, as its economic. size now resists course

What Is HeinOnline?

HeinOnline is a subscription-based resource containing thousands of academic and legal journals from inception; complete coverage of government documents such as U.S. Statutes at Large, U.S. Code, Federal Register, Code of Federal Regulations, U.S. Reports, and much more. Documents are image-based, fully searchable PDFs with the authority of print combined with the accessibility of a user-friendly and powerful database. For more information, request a quote or trial for your organization below.



Contact us for annual subscription options:

Contact Us

Already a HeinOnline Subscriber?

Log In

profiles profiles most