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1 1 (July 20, 2021)

handle is hein.amenin/aeiaebl0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Key Points he hi''se govenment continues to ciaim overseas investment and construc ton have seen little imp acn nrm the pandemic, but examining corporate disclosures indi- cates otherwise. Wh' he China G loba nvestment Tracker shovws investrne t ju ping, it is umping from a very s all base. Construction deals are nor being impieented. o Although recovery rm the panderic is uneven, it continue, barric ng a CVID1 resurgence. Investment and consruction volunes in 2022 and beyond depend partly on Chinese oicy. It Beijing s roritie continue to be mar|<et domninance and tehno- ogy extaction, the olden age of tward ive-stiment will remain in the reariew mirror. In that case, construction aong the Bet and Road wi beo the ina activity, Bet and Road cxunres easly oupa'e rich cunries in drawin.g Chinese investors and builders during the pandern-c. Tere has been little Chin'-s- investrnenn the US3 tI past few years. Mc-whileLiS investmen't in China hi pas ased $1 trion. Technlgy os' throuoh outbound Ameri- can investment and exports is more pr ssing tian thrugh in bound investment. The Cina Global investment Tracker was created in 2005 because official Ci nes government data were not informative. Both official date and the tracker improved in quality until the CCVID -og pandemic. Over the past 18 months, Chinese gov- ernment claims about outbound investnent have stopped making sense. Tracker numbers are sensi- ble but suffer from larger gap s than before. The balance of evidence says investat at in z2wo and 2021 dropped far more than the Chinese govern- ment imsists The China Global Investment Tracker (CGIT) from the American Enterprise Institute and Heritage Foundation is the most complete publicly availa- Le record of China's investment and construction worldwide. Near'y 4,ooo transactions from 2oc through dhe middle of 2021 are accessible' Until 2019, the CGIT approximated official Chinese investment figures whiln providing far more uscful bilateral and sector breakdowns. In 2019, the investment stories split, with dhe government reporting a smaller drop. The gap ballooned when COVID9-ig iit. B-cause the CtGI excludes transactions halow 595 =illiou, it nisses proportionally inore deals during do_:wn- turins. No-eneless, it is inmpossible to document the amaz rg stability China claims for recent investment, globally and within the top historical recipients of Europe the US, and Australia. While spending in Belt a:nd Road initiative (BRil countries

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