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1 1 (June 30, 2020)

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Fiscal Policy and the Major
Entitlements: An Introdtuction


By ]anmes C. Capretta


The U was facing a 'hallngin g fiscal out e oven betore the o u,ronavirus pane .ic. Th _ur
rert crisis and the fiancial cash of just Iver a decade agu have mde matters muc: worse. Bott
required aggressve pc-i v respses ard significae.tt-deral borrowing. Iedora debt is now likely

to escalate more rapidly thr even pessimistic scenarios predicted a few years ago, Beyond the
Crises, the prrlmry causes ot fiscal pressure ar-e popL1ation aging ad rnsirg health expen,ses. The
arge federal entitlerent programs-Social Security., edica2re, and  edic2d-hive grown rap-
idly over the past half certary ard are expected to continue doirg so i coming decades. When
the crts ;ee s, ongress should enact reforrns that lower ttie long-term ecss of tes pm-
grams. -[ie ermphasis should be or promoting ler working lves nre progressive berefits,
aid efficieny ir: the provisior of heathi ard longterre care services.


Reckless borfrvng is one of the main routes to dissi-
pairng a co-utry's power and internatilonal rinfluence, It
would be disastrous globally if the U.nited States were
to weaken itself and abdicate its role as leader of the
de'nocratic West through the slowboil ofrfiscal excess.,
   Iinfrtunately, tilat is no longer a rem ote possibil-
it The COVTID- in pandemic has exacerbated what was
already an extreemy challenging fiscal outlook and put
the nation perilously close to ,the point of no return on
debt accurmulation.
   A maor factor in the rapidly chaning fiscal land-
scape is the short period between two damaging Ceco-
nomic crises. The global coronav .us pandemlic is
umfolding barely a decade after ie worst financial


collapse since the Great Depression. Both events have
required the federal government to borrow heavily to
support the economry, And t.hese crises occurred against
a backdrop of unrelenting growth in entitlement spend-
ing ,x)ver an.y-,vearso
   Polcvmake.rs in Congress and the executivc brand-
are focused for now, as they should be, on confroning
the pandenric and limiting the economic damage caused
by social distancing measures. However, when the cnsis
abates, they -v.ll be facing a dramatically altered fiscal
outlook that will demand new thinking about how to
return the nation to a sustainable path of deficits and
aecunrulated debt.


Au earlier cci slur oirhn. report WaA em~nrnis~ioucd ii~ rho iu:mdauou for Tc'chrrrg LYonurricA


A5M[ERICAN LENTERPRISE iNSTI-U IE


June 2020

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