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1 1 (September 2017)

handle is hein.amenin/aeiabtt0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Key Points Russian President Vladimir Putin has long thought of Belarus as a critical part of the broader Russian world and privileged sphere of influence. While the Zapad military drills could provide an opportunity to leave troops in Belarus, broader geostrategic tensions guarantee Moscow will retain the motivation and opportunity to possibly intervene in the future. Belarus' political and economic dance between East and West could prove unsustain- able in the long term, threatening the stability of the Lukashenko regime and opening the door to Russian intervention under the guise of a peacekeeping operation. Possible Russian aggression against Belarus sterns from three factors: Putin's imperial syndrome/' that is, his long- standing desire to incorporate Bearus into Russia; The political imperatives of boosting the reginme's popularity, especially ahead of the 201.8 presidential election; and * Putin's desire to use Belarus as a bridgehead for potential future strikes against Ukraine, Poland; and the Baltic States. The rejoining of Belarus and Russia fits into Putin's broader goal' of preventing the euro- integration of BelaruSo2 Additionally, the seizure of (or eunification with) Belarus would greatly boost Putin's popu- larity ahead of the 201.8 Russian presidential election. Without another patriotic boost, Putin will face a predetermined, although ugly cam- paign with a Russian electorate fed up with poor economic conditions and widespread corruption. The reunification with Belarus could be among the catalysts of another round of patriotic mobili- zation. Militarily, guaranteeing passage through Belarus would be criitcal to any potential Russian attack on NATO's eastern flank.- Basing Russian troops in Belarus would place them next to the 10-kilometer stretch of the Lithuanian-Polish border. The seizure of this border (the Suwalki Gap) would separate the three Baltic countries from the rest of Europe. NATO is well aware of this, and in June 201.7, 1,500 NATO soldiers from the US and UK held exercises to defend this area.4 Russia has done little to assuage the concerns about possible aggression. In addition to the 2017

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