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1 1 (November 2016)

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Key  Points

  *  The language of the Trump campaign indicates possible major changes in American
    trade policy. These changes should not focus on eliminating or drastically reducing the
    trade deficit, as the evidence shows this is unlikely to create jobs.
  *  Our biggest trade relationship, with China, has multiple problems. Currency
     manipulation wins attention but may be an outdated concern. Right now, Chinese
     subsidies are blocking American exports and China is stealing intellectual property.
     The US should strongly consider retaliation in these areas.
  *  Both Americans who benefit from trade and US trade partners would be immensely
     reassured if the restrictions the Trump administration finds necessary are coupled with
     steps to encourage more trade. An example is seeking a free trade agreement with the
     United Kingdom.


Only a few people know what President-elect
Donald Trump  truly wants to do about trade. For
the rest of us, constant conjecture about the
grand vision is much less valuable than evaluating
specific policies. These policies must fit at least to
some extent with what the president-elect and his
staff said during the campaign. Fortunately, the
campaign offered plenty of trade material to work
with.
   The following recommendations may or may
not match the Trump administration's eventual
views, but they should be close enough to be
worth consideration:

  (i) Do not try to zero out the trade deficit. It
  will not create jobs.

  (2) Focusing on China makes more sense
  than focusing on NAFTA. Regarding China,
  currency manipulation may not matter
  while subsidies and theft of trade secrets
  definitely matter.


   (3) It would reassure Americans and
   American trade partners if positive steps
   accompanied new barriers. A free trade deal
   with Britain, for example, has many
   advantages.

   (4) There are also unilateral actions that
   would make any trade policy better. These
   range from compiling information on trade
   cheaters to streamlining corporate taxes.

The  Trade  Deficit

The rhetoric of the Trump campaign suggests that
the net effect of planned changes in US policy will
be to limit trade rather than expand it. But this
general observation obscures a wide variety of
possibilities. The primary issue-more important
than the North American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA),  more important than 45 percent tariffs
on China-is  how to treat the trade deficit.


AMERICAN   ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE

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