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1 1 (January 2018)

handle is hein.amenin/aeiaaqm0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Key Points * Kazakhstan's size and Russia's lack of significant military presence in the region make outright invasion unlikely. * Nevertheless, the death or deposition of Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev could generate regional instability, which may prompt Russia to intervene in support of a new regime or to undermine a newly empowered Kazakh nationalist one. * The likeliest cause of intervention would be to put down an Islamist insurgency, either with or without a request from Astana. Although a Russian military intervention in Kazakh- stan is fairly unlikely, there are scenarios under which it could occur. This report first describes several possible scenarios that might result in such an intervention, considering potential Russian re- sponses that range from providing assistance at the request of Kazakhstan's government to an outright invasion. It then briefly examines the forces Russia could bring to bear in a conflict in Central Asia, look- ing in slightly more depth at the likeliest scenario-a Russian intervention to suppress an Islamist incursion or uprising. Possible Scenarios for Intervention in Kazakhstan Kazakhstan's size would make Russia reluctant to undertake a full-scale military intervention. Still, there are circumstances under which the Russian leadership would feel pressure to use force to intervene in Kazakhstan. The greatest potential threat to political sta- bility in Kazakhstan would come from the death or incapacity of Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev. Such a situation could be followed by a succession crisis, with multiple groups jockeying for position. If prolonged government weakness or conflict ensues, radical Islamist groups connected to the Taliban or the Islamic State could seize the oppor- tunity to launch an armed insurgency, potentially combined with an incursion from the south. A weak or divided Kazakhstan government might prove incapable of resisting a well-organized insurgency, especially if the anti-government forces are able to draw on the support of local inhabitants in the more religious (Islamic) southern parts of the country. In such a situation, Kazakhstani leaders might request assistance from Russia. Russia might also intervene on its own without a request for help, but only if Kazakhstan were largely engulfed by instability and Russia wanted to protect its borders or ethnic Russians living in areas near Russia that were under threat. Although the threat from religious extremist groups is real, it requires some degree of state weakness or division to develop. While scholars have long argued that a crisis precipitated by the death of an aging leader could provide such an opportunity in any of AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE

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