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Key  Points

  *  China's investment around the world grew almost 50 percent in 2016 to approximately
     $175 billion. It has now doubled in size since 2012.
  *  China's global spending surge is due primarily to investment in the United States,
     which exceeded  $50 billion in 2016. Acquisitions by private enterprises are at its heart.
  *  Energy made a surprise comeback in 2016, leading all sectors in drawing Chinese
     funds. However, a bigger story was a jump in attempted and successful technology
     acquisitions.
  *  This year will be weaker than last. Total investment may or may not fall, but
     diversification by country, sector, and the Chinese companies is likely to decline.
  *  American policy should be based on actions by China and Chinese investors,
     reciprocity and obeying US law, respectively, rather than nominal state ownership.


Chinese outward investment set records in 2016,
but it is hard to be confident about the numbers.
The amount  of money leaving the People's
Republic of China (PRC), sometimes illegally, is
so large that picking out genuine investment has
become  a challenge. It can suit Beijing to label
capital flight as investment. Independent
observers occasionally include acquisitions both
in the year announced and again in the following
year when completed.
   The China Global Investment Tracker (CGIT),
from the American Enterprise Institute and The
Heritage Foundation, is vetted, with each
transaction detailed in the only fully public record
of the PRC's investment and construction.'
Vetting yields an initial estimate of $170 billion in
Chinese outward, non-bond  investment last year,
a 46 percent increase over zo5. There was
explosive growth from the start, and worries
about a weakening renminbi helped support a


quick pace until December, when Chinese
authorities became belatedly alarmed over money
leaving the country.
   Record-breaking totals mean records for
sectors and countries. Energy investment,
including gas and alternative energy, intensified
over the course of the year, with more than $30
billion ultimately allocated. While this is a return
to the past, technology acquisitions touching $25
billion constitute a sharp change. Another new
development  was nearly $20 billion invested in
tourism, primarily hotels.
   By country, the previous high for Chinese
spending in the US was nearly tripled to over $50
billion (initial estimate) in 2016, by far the top
national figure. The US accounted for 30 percent
of the PRC's outward investment last year. Three
other countries-Britain, Brazil, and Germany-
surpassed $10 billion, which would have been
extraordinary as recently as 2012.


AMERICAN   ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE

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