About | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline
LOG IN
LOG IN

1 1 (February 2018)

handle is hein.amenin/aeiaaoj0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Key Points * The threats Russia poses in Latvia vary from ongoing, low-level political support for pro- Russian candidates to unlikely but possible outright invasion aimed at creating a land bridge between the Russian mainland and the exclave of Kaliningrad. * Even with current NATO forces stationed in Latvia, Moscow may still believe it can delegitimize NATO by conducting an attack that Western leaders do not respond to. * Building up societal awareness of and resistance to Russian political subversion and increasing military deterrence are the best ways to resist potential Russian aggression. To analyze how Russia could attack the Baltic States, it is necessary to think as the Russian military does. There are four possible scenarios for a campaign against the Baltic States. Each one is based on one element of the so-called New-Generation Warfare (NGW), which Russia employed in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The Russian strategy has eight interchangeable elements. The first four phases of the NGW are non- kinetic, using strategies of low-intensity conflict. Military action starts in the fifth stage, by readying the theater for a kinetic operation. Russia would probably combine different strategic elements of NGW. For example, in Ukraine the focus is more on low-intensity conflict, while in Syria the focus is on noncontact warfare or sixth-generation warfare, to use the Russian terminology. A Conventional Operation The first scenario is a conventional military operation. One of the best-known studies discussing a Russian attack against the Baltics is Rand's zo16 report Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank. The main takeaway is that Russia could reach the outskirts of Riga and Tallinn in 6o hours, leaving NATO with limited options. The paper is not clear about Russia's motivations to attack two NATO members. It also ignored Russia's potential tactical objectives in the region, limitations due to terrain, and the fact that after Russian troops reached Riga, they would be in an urban warfare situation. Russia's Achilles' heel is Kaliningrad, which is separated from the mainland by Lithuania. Therefore, in a conventional military operation, the probable objective would be to establish a corridor to connect Kaliningrad with mainland Russia using the Baltic States. In this scenario, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania would lose some territory (likely that bordering Russia) but maintain their independence. To achieve this objective, it would be necessary to launch an operation focusing mostly on Latvia and Lithuania while using enough forces to keep the Estonian AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE

What Is HeinOnline?

HeinOnline is a subscription-based resource containing thousands of academic and legal journals from inception; complete coverage of government documents such as U.S. Statutes at Large, U.S. Code, Federal Register, Code of Federal Regulations, U.S. Reports, and much more. Documents are image-based, fully searchable PDFs with the authority of print combined with the accessibility of a user-friendly and powerful database. For more information, request a quote or trial for your organization below.



Contact us for annual subscription options:

Contact Us

Already a HeinOnline Subscriber?

Log In

profiles profiles most