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1 1 (November 2018)

handle is hein.amenin/aeiaaen0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Key Points * From January 2014 to June 2018, construction activity ($256 billion) outpaced invest- ment ($148 billion) in 75 Belt and Road countries. Activity across both construction and investment focused on energy first, then transport. * From the end of june to mid-October, the Belt and Road mushroomed to 117 countries, but construction and investment trends were unchanged. * The share of private investment in the Belt and Road fell by 12 percent in the first half of 2018 versus the first half of 2017. Private companies that were interested in participating have reconsidered. This puts more pressure on the Chinese state. China's foreign exchange reserves are no longer growing and are further threatened by a possible contraction in exports to the US. Beijing is more wary of spending to finance Belt and Road projects. The Chinese government offered the Belt and Road Initiative to improve transport connectivity along the Silk Road of the ancient Tang dynasty. The initiative has also become a branding exercise for not-for-profit construction and investment that the People's Republic of China (PRC) was already engaged in. The number of countries in the Belt and Road (BRI) continues to expand, from 75 at end of June 2018 to 117 by mid-October. The latest additions are mostly developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. However, construction and investment trends remain unchanged. All BRI members, new and old, were hosting Chinese companies before the BRI was launched. Construc- tion still outpaces investment as the main activity in these countries, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are still the dominant actors. BRI Construction: Impressive, Not New The BRI was announced in autumn z013, meaning it has just completed its fifth year. The Chinese Global Investment Tracker (CGIT) from the American Enterprise Institute and Heritage Foundation documents its footprint. Though June 30, 2018, 75 countries had joined the BRI. From January 2014 through June z208, Chinese invest- ment totaled $148 billion, and total construction value was at least $256 billion. We differentiate between investment and construction because investment entails ownership while construction is Chinese services performed in the host country. Construction is the core of the BRI and picked up in the 4.5 years from January 2014 through June 2018, but it is hardly new. In the 4.5 years before 2014, construction activity in the same 75 countries totaled $157 billion. The energy sector continues AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE

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