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1 1 (January 2018)

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Key Points

  * Given Moldova's complicated history, divided identity, and meager defense
     capabilities, the country is extremely vulnerable to Russian intervention.
  * The Russia n-su pported separatist enclave of Transnistria has threatened Moldova's
     stability since the country's independence in 1992, and Transnistrian and Russian
     forces in the region pose serious security risks.
   Ironically, an outright military intervention is unlikely because Russia can use several
     nonmilitary tools to influence political developments in the country more covertly.


Throughout its history Moldova has been a geo-
political playground for larger actors in the region,
and its newly acquired independence does not
appear to have changed this. As many imperial
powers do, Russia consistently undermines the
sovereignty of independent countries it perceives
to be in its sphere of influence. In Moldova's case,
Exhibit A is Moscow's support for the separatist
regime in Transnistria before, during, and after
the full-scale war that erupted on March z, 1992,
the day the Republic of Moldova was accepted
into the United Nations as a member. That tragic
event haunts Moldova to this day, as Russia has
entrenched itself in the region despite commitments
at the 1999 Istanbul Summit of the Organisation
for Security and Co-operation in Europe to
withdraw its military presence from Moldova's
Transnistrian region.
   Due to Moldova's meager defense budget,,
which rests on the pretense of military neutrality,
the country cannot possibly withstand Russia's
hybrid warfare tactics, let alone a full-scale
Russian military intervention. Considering the


country's declared constitutional neutrality,
Moldova's options for bolstering its defense are
severely limited. Thus, Moldova's bilateral military
cooperation agreement with Romania, signed in
2012, covers only personnel training and military
infrastructure cooperation.2 Nevertheless, Moldova
benefits from assistance under the aegis of the EU's
Common Defense and Security Policy: It was the
first country where the EU deployed a security
sector reform adviser to guide the implementation
of a national security strategy, help develop national
capacities, and facilitate Moldova's participation
in international missions and operations. Further
security and defense cooperation with the EU is
vital to advancing the country's goal of political
integration with the EU.
   Of course, given the EU's own shortcomings in
defense against a powerful actor such as Russia,
the only effective structure in this regard would
be NATO. Moldova's relationship with NATO is
currently based on an Individual Partnership
Action Plan for 2017-19.3 It stipulates Moldova's
interest in developing further cooperation with


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