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1 1 (September 2016)

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iAEe PLITICA REPORT





                    IN THI ISSUE:








                  Is It Over? What the Public Thinks

 In past elections, Americans have made fairly accurate poll predictions about general election winners. If the
 public is correct this year, Hillary Clinton will be our next president. In recent polls, one in five say she'll win by
 a wide margin; even more say she'll win by a smaller one. This was not always the case. In a February 2015 Fox
 News poll of registered voters, around half said they thought a Republican would win, while 35 percent said a
 Democrat. In a separate question that specified Hillary Clinton as the Democrat, 38 percent said she would win,
 while 47 percent said whoever is the Republican nominee would.


Q: What do you think is the most likely outcome of the
presidential election with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic
nominee and Donald Trump as the Republican nominee?


Clinton will win in a landslide
Clinton will win narrowly
Trump will win narrowly
Trump will win in a landslide


Aug. 2016
    21%
    33
    21
    8


Clinton by a lot
Clinton by a little
Trump by a little
Trump bya lot


Note: Online survey.
Source: The Economist/YouGov, August 2016.


Note: Sample is registered voters.
Source: Fox News, June 2016.


Q: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think will actually be elected?

                           2016               1n June. 86 nercent of


Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump


Source: Surveys of Consumers, University of Michigan; latest that
of August 2016.

Q: Who do you think will win the 2016 presidential election?

                             Feb. 2015
A Democrat
A Republican

Democrat Hillary Clinton
Whoever is the Republican nominee
Note: Sample is registered voters.
Source: Fox News, February 2015.


35%


-38%
                    4)


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179MsahstsAeuN ,Wsigon0C206-228250  w~e~r


Q: Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you think
will win in November?


Jun. 2016


20%


June
54%
40


July
61%
34


August
  69%
  26

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