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75 Foreign Aff. 165 (1996)
Letters to the Editor

handle is hein.journals/fora75 and id is 551 raw text is: Letters to the Editor
Jeffrey G. Madrick, David F Gordon,
Per Pinstrup-Andersen, Ira Wolf, and others

PIVOTAL MISTAKES
To the Editor:
The pivotal states perspective that
Robert S. Chase, Emily B. Hill, and Paul
Kennedy advocate is seriously flawed as
a guide for U.S. policy toward the devel-
oping world (Pivotal States and U.S.
Strategy, January/February 1996). It is
reminiscent of the Nixon-Kissinger for-
eign aid policy that conflated fostering
stability with bolstering regional hege-
mons. In the past, the identification of a
regional power as a vital U.S. security
interest-as with Iran, the Philippines,
and Zaire in the 197os-contributed to
political repression, a misguided orien-
tation toward American concerns, a
corresponding insensitivity to popular
demands, and subsequent instability. A
central lesson of the history of U.S. for-
eign assistance is that when provided to
buttress American security, it has often
had a counterproductive effect on eco-
nomic development, which should be
the focus of U.S. policy.
The authors' greatest concern is that
internal disorder will spread from the piv-
otal states, undermining the stability of
the surrounding regions. But they
understate the economic dimension of
U.S. interests in the developing world.
American prosperity increasingly depends
on dynamic growth in developing coun-

tries, U.S. exports to which are growing
nearly ten times as fast as those to the
developed world. Economic growth in
the North has historically trickled down
to the South, but in recent years this rela-
tionship has begun to change. Growth
in the developing countries in the early
199os softened the effects of international
recession on First World economies.
Emerging markets will also be important
investment outlets for the expanding pri-
vate pensions of the baby boomers.
The authors' narrow focus leads them
to conclude that the pivotal states are
not currently receiving serious American
attention. However, most of their pivots
are on the Clinton administration's list
of Big Emerging Markets that serves
as a focal point of U.S. efforts to inte-
grate developing countries into the world
economy. Especially in relation to large
and relatively prosperous countries, trade
agreements, investment promotion,
regional and international financial insti-
tutions, and debt arrangements can have
a greater impact than bilateral aid. For
example, the Brady Plan, named for
Bush administration Treasury Secretary
Nicholas Brady, restructured commercial-
bank debt in developing countries, doing
far more for Brazil's stability than any
bilateral aid commitment. Brazil also
receives some eight percent of total global

FOREIGN AFFAIRS •May/June 1996

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