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7 CCLR 87 (2013)
Introduction: Climate Changing Geoengineering

handle is hein.journals/cclr2013 and id is 95 raw text is: Introduction: Climate Change Geoengineering | 87 Introduction: Climate Change Geoengineering Wil Burns* As David Victor recently observed, climate geoengi- neering, broadly defined as the deliberate large- scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change,' was once viewed as a freak show in otherwise serious discussions of climate science and policy.2 How- ever, as negotiations for a successor to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol have ensued, it has become increasingly apparent that the world community lacks the politi- cal will to reduce emissions to a level that avoids extremely serious climatic impacts. As Geden recently concluded, while there is general consen- sus in the international community that tempera- ture increases need to be limited to two degrees Celsius to avoid dangerous climate change, this goal is now patently unrealistic.3 Indeed, a num- ber of recent studies have concluded that pledges made by the Parties in the Copenhagen Accord at Associate Director, Energy Policy & Climate program, Johns Hopkins University. 1 The Royal Society, Geoengineering the Climate: Science, Governance and Uncertainty, September 2009, available on the Internet at <http://royalsociety.org/Geoengineering-the-climate> (last accessed on 28 March 2013), at 11. 2 David G. Victor, On the Regulation of Geoengineering, 24(2) Oxford Review of Economic Policy (2008), 322, 323. 3 Oliver Geden, Modifying the 20 Target (Berlin: SWP, 2013), at 5. 4 Joeri Rogelj et al., Analysis of the Copenhagen Accord Pledges and its Global Climatic Impacts -A Snapshot of Dissonant Ambitions, 5 Environmental Research Letters 034013 (2010), at 7; International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010: Executive Summary (Paris: IEA, 2010), at 11. 5 Ken Caldeira and David W. Keith, The Need for Climate Engi- neering Research, 15 Issues in Science and Technology (2010), 57. See also Sabine Fuss, et al., Optimal Mitigation Strategies with Negative Emission Technologies and Carbon Sinks Under Uncertainty, 118 Climatic Change (2013), 73, at 76. 6 Jason J. Blackstock et al., Climate Engineering Responses to Climate Emergencies, Novim (29 July 2009), at 1-2; Peter J. Irvine et al., The Fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a Geoengineered, High CO2 World, 4 Environmental Research Letters 045109 (2009), at 2. A complete melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet could occur with temperature increases of 2-30 Celsius, Stephen Schnei- der, The Worst-Case Scenario, 458 Nature (2009), 1104. This could raise global sea level by approximately 7 meters and trigger a slowdown or collapse of the ocean thermohaline circulation, which could result in significant cooling over much of the north- ern hemisphere, see Jason A. Lowe et al., The Role of Sea-Level the 15th Conference of the Parties may result in tem- perature of increase of 2.5-4.2oC by 2100, with tem- peratures continuing to increase after this point.4 The feckless response of policymakers to the threat of climate change has led to increasingly seri- ous consideration of the role of geoengineering as a potential means to avoid a climate emergency,5 such as rapid melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, or as a stopgap measure to buy time for effective emissions mitigation responses.7 Indeed, a number of recent studies indicate that geoengineering schemes could potentially mitigate the climatic impacts associated with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels from pre-indus- trial levels.8 At the same time, many geoengineering options could pose substantial risks. For example, the most widely cited solar radiation management option,9 stratospheric sulfate aerosol injection, could lead to a substantial reduction in precipitation in monsoon Rise and the Greenland Ice Sheet in Dangerous Climate Change: Implications for the Stabilisation of Climate, in Hans Joachim Schelinhuber (ed.), Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006), 30; Julian A. Dowdeswell, The Greenland Ice Sheet and Global Sea-Level Rise, 311 Science (2004), 963. 7 Martin Bunzl, Research Geoengineering: Should Not or Could Not?, 4 Environmental Research Letters 045104 (2009); Christo- pher Mims, 'Albedo Yachts' and Marine Clouds: A Cure for Cli- mate Change?, 163 Scientific American (21 October 2009), at 3. 8 Bala Govindasamy, Ken Caldeira and Philip B. Duffy, Geoengi- neering Earth's Radiation Balance to Mitigate Climate Change from a Quadrupling of C02, 37 Global& Planetary Change (2003), 157, at 158; Ken Caldeira and Lowell Wood, Global and Arctic Climate Engineering: Numerical Model Studies, 366 Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London (2008), 4039, at 4044. 9 Solar radiation management (SRM) methods focus on reducing the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the Earth by an amount sufficient to offset the increased trapping of infrared radiation by rising levels of greenhouse gases, see Michael C. MacCracken, Beyond Mitigation: Potential Options for Counter-Balancing the Climatic and Environmental Consequences of the Rising Concen- trations of Greenhouse Gases (Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2009), at 15. It has been calculated that solar irradiance would have to be reduced by 1.8% to offset the radiative forcing associated with a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations from pre-industrial levels, see The Royal Society, Geoengineering the Climate, supra, note 1, at 23. Solar radiation management methods seek to reduce net incoming short-wave solar radiation by deflecting sunlight or increasing the reflectivity of the atmos- phere, clouds or the Earth's surface. CCLR 212013

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