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1 Climate Change Is Driving People into Armed Groups: Five Takeaways (July 2024) [1] (2024)

handle is hein.unl/cmtchisd0001 and id is 1 raw text is: UNIDIR MANAGING EXITS FROM ARMED CONFLICT CLIMATE CHANGE IS DRIVING PEOPLE INTO ARMED GROUPS (JULY 2024) Quite literally a hot topic, climate-security is among the key concerns of the international community today. By now, it is well established that climate change plays a role in driving armed conflict, but the question remains: how exactly? The general answer: It's complicated. There is no direct link by which higher temperatures or changes in rainfall automatically lead to violence. Rather, the climate- conflict-nexus is driven by indirect pathways and mediating factors that influence if or how these linkages play out. On top of that, as climate change manifests differently across - and even within - regions, its intermediate effects on conflict onset or conflict dynamics can vary as well. Broadly, heavy storms, torrential rains, floods, wildfires, as well as slow-onset stressors like droughts, shifting seasonal rainfall and desertification can fuel existing vulnerabilities, undermining human security and increasing the risk of - potentially large-scale - armed or criminal violence. Importantly, by putting a strain on natural resources and the agricultural livelihoods that depend on them, climate change is eroding socio-economic resilience in often already fragile regions. Compounded by weak governance and limited coping capacities, this presents a breeding ground for competition over water and arable land - and for armed groups to recruit from hard-hit communities that lack economic alternatives and effective dispute resolution. Armed groups can also exploit resource scarcity by controlling access to land and waterways, gaining a foothold in local communities. Other factors, such as climate-induced displacement or food insecurity and their effects on inequality and social cohesion, only add to the pressure. Across several case studies, MEAC's unique local-level data sheds light on some of these links. In surveys with community members, leaders, as well as former and current armed group associates, five key findings stand out: CLIMATE CHNG I SWDL FELTS 1 SS droght or floscmprdt whenS the wer youger (1.Amn 1. In 2024, adult respondents (N=2555) were asked: Compared to when you were younger, do you think there have been significant changes in rainfall, temperatures, or the frequency and intensity of droughts or floods? - Yes / No / Refused to answer. 2. In 2021, respondents (N=2460) were asked: In your lifetime, do you think there have been great changes in rainfall, temperatures, or weather events such as floods and droughts? - Yes / No / Refused to answer.

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