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1 Timothy Vermeer, The Impact of Individual Income Tax Changes on Economic Growth 1 (2022)

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                             The Impact of Individual Income Tax


                             Changes on Economic Growth


FISCAL                       TimothyVermeer   Senior Policy Analyst
FACT
No. 793
June 2022

                             Key   Findings

                                •  Research  almost invariably shows a negative relationship between income tax
                                   rates and gross domestic product (GDP).

                                •  The mobility of higher-skilled and higher income earners in an open economy
                                   works  against the effort of progressive state and local tax systems to achieve
                                   long-term redistribution of income.

                                •  The likelihood of an employed head of household  obtaining a better job
                                   within a year is higher when a tax system's progressivity is reduced.

                                •  A decrease in a tax system's progressivity is associated with an increase in the
                                   real growth rate of wages.

                                •  Changes  in rates of private investment and private consumption are highly
                                   correlated with tax changes. Measures of the magnitude  of the investment
                                   and consumption   changes vary, but the relationship between the variables
                                   is consistently negative: as tax levels or rates decrease, investment and/or
                                   consumption  increases and vice versa.

                                •  Cuts to marginal tax rates are highly correlated with decreases in the
                                   unemployment   rate.
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