![handle is hein.journals/uilro2023 and id is 1 raw text is:
SURPRISINGLY (UN)INSPIRING JUDICIAL
DECISIONS
Brian Christopher Jones*
INTRODUCTION
Supreme Court decisions can quickly and dramatically change the
constitutional landscape. They may provide rights or protections where none
previously existed, help delineate the separation of powers, or even contain the
final blow to a faltering presidency. But can they affect voter turnout? The
consensus among commentators and pollsters was that Dobbs would galvanize
voters toward the ballot box in November 2022,2 and indeed there were signs
that overturning Roe had invigorated voters in some places.3 But even though
Democrats did better than predicted in the midterms, the post-Dobbs effect
ultimately aligned with a familiar pattern to other landmark SCOTUS decisions:
that of decreasing post-decision voter turnout. The 2018 elections produced the
strongest midterm voter turnout in over a century (50%), but the 2022 returns
show that voter turnout fell to 46.8%, down over three points from 2018.4
Scouring years of voter turnout data, this piece finds that landmark court
decisions-in the US and elsewhere-do not often result in increased voter
turnout. Many landmark cases have been surprisingly followed by decreased
voter turnout or by very marginal voter turnout increases, suggesting that they
often placate rather than energize the electorate.
* Lecturer (Asst. Prof.) in Law, School of Law, University of Sheffield. Special thanks to the Illinois
Law Review staff for all its diligent work on this piece. Any errors remain mine.
1. Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, No. 19-1392, 597 U.S. ___ (2022).
2. Tom Bonier, Women Are So Fired Up to Vote, I've Never Seen Anything Like It, N.Y. TIMES (Sept. 3,
2022), https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/03/opinion/women-voters-roe-abortion-midterms.html
[https://perma.ccIW7VM-HRDD]; See also Catherine Lucey, Support for Legalized Abortion Grows Since
Dobbs Ruling, WSJ Poll Shows, WALL ST. J. (Sept. 3, 2022, 9:00 AM), https://www.wsj.com/articles/support-
for-legalized-abortion-grows-since-dobbs-ruling-wsj-poll-shows-11662210020 [https://perma.cc/TBF2-JAAP].
3. Gabriella Borter, Kansas Votes to Preserve Abortion Rights in First Post-Roe v. Wade Election Test,
REUTERS (Aug. 4, 2022, 3:50 AM), https://www.reuters.com/world/us/abortion-rights-face-voter-test-kansas-
after-roe-v-wade-reversal-2022-08-02/ [https://perma.cc/T5W3-PCCW].
4. National General Election VEP Turnout Rates, 1789-Present, U.S. Election Project,
https://www.electproject.org/2022g, (last visited Jan. 6, 2022) [https://perma.cc/88DL-B2MH]. However, note
that the 2022 voter turnout was still quite high in comparative perspective, and was the highest midterm turnout
since 1970 (473%).
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