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43 Tax Memo 1 (1967)

handle is hein.journals/taxmmo43 and id is 1 raw text is: TAX MEMO March, 1967 FEDERAL BUDGET OUTLOOK -1967 The 1967-68 federal budget, like all but twenty-four of its predecessors since Confederation and like the last eleven in a row, is expected to be in a deficit position. On the other hand the national accounts budget for the year beginning this April 1 will be closer to the break- even point, probably with a modest sur- plus. The national accounts are now widely accepted as the better measure by which to judge the economic impact of the federal government's revenue and expenditure program. The Canadian Tax Foundation bases its forecast on the current programs of the federal government-the background against which the Finance Minister must make his budget decisions-but does not attempt to predict the tax and expenditure changes which may be introduced in the budget. To complete the budget picture the Minister must fit into this setting his assessment of the needs of the economy and his judgment of what changes may be desirable on other grounds. At this time the direction of the economy is particularly difficult to forecast, and if this situation con- tinues to prevail until budget day (the date of which has not yet been announced), the Minister can be expected to apply his fiscal tools with caution to avoid upsetting the delicate balance in the economy. The projections for 1966-67 indicate a deficit of about $440 million, or $100 million above the mini-budget pro- jection of December and $290 million over the budget forecast of last March. Despite a larger than expected increase in the total output of goods and services (GNP), revenues will just about equal the main budget projection. A number of changes, detailed in a later section, have combined to produce this apparent agreement. On the other hand, expendi- tures will probably be about $280 mil- lion higher than the original budget fore- cast, partly as a result of price increases during the year and partly as a result of increases in military pay and allowances and in the rate of war veterans' allow- ances and disability and death pensions. Additional copies of this Memo may be obtained at a price of 25¢. CKADIAN TAX FOUNDATION L'ASSOG!ATION CANADIENNE D'ETUDES FISCALES No. 43

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