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44 Prob. J. 2 (1997)

handle is hein.journals/probj44 and id is 1 raw text is: What Worked? A Five Year Study of Probationers' Reconvictions Despite claims that prison 'works', incapacitating offenders whilst performing no worse than community sentences in terms of reconviction rates, a follow-up study of the reoffending of all offenders placed on probation in Kent in 1991 demonstrates the positive impact of supervision upon subsequent offending patterns and the negative effects of previous custodial sentences. Mark Oldfield, Research Officer in Kent Probation Service, analyses the complexity of the findings and suggests that they provide a sustainable argument for the increased use of community penalties. T he Probation Service finds itself in a curious position as we near the millennium. Political antipathy toward the notion of social work with offenders has reached a new peak, with the Home Secretary deciding - in the face of large scale and reasoned opposition - that professional training should be abolished, in order to recruit 'more suitable' applicants such as ex-members of the armed forces. Young offenders are demonised, whilst increasing crime rates are blamed on, inter alia, trendy teachers, single mothers and welfare dependency. Boot camps and electronic monitoring are floated as part of the government's approach to tackling crime, with both options conveniently offering new opportunities for the private sector to further insinuate itself into the criminal justice system. In the face of opposition from both statutory agencies and penal reform groups, the Home Secretary has maintained that 'Prison Works', that incarceration offers a positive means of disposing of offenders. The impact of such a populist move has upped the ante of the criminal justice debate, with the Home Secretary now flirting with adopting the 'Three Strikes' policy adopted in the US, an approach involving the creation of mandatory long term prison sentences for offenders convicted of a certain number of offences. The theory that an increasing prison population will at some stage reduce crime rates has a certain simple theoretical beauty in an age when crime has become a party political issue. But, as Sellin' said, 'Beautiful theories have a way of turning into ugly practices'. In response, the Labour opposition can 2

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