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43 Prob. J. 2 (1996)

handle is hein.journals/probj43 and id is 1 raw text is: Risk Assessment: Fuzzy Thinking or 'Decisions in Action'? In a range of tasks from pre-sentence reports to the oversight of long- term prisoners on licence, probation officers are asked to predict and manage future behaviour. How is risk defined and operationalised by probation staff and upon what knowledge base and value systems do understandings of risk rest? Hazel Kemshall, Lecturer in Probation Studies at the University of Birmingham, uses the initial findings of her recent research to sketch how probation practitioners gauge and rationalise their risk assessments. A t present there appears little consensus about the nature of risk in the Probation Service. It is an issue characterised by 'fuzzy thinking' in which individual members of staff, including managers, resolve their uncertainty through use of values, beliefs about the nature of task, and strategies for 'occupational survival'. Does this mean that staff, and hence the Service, do not know what to do about risk? To gain a better understanding of the beliefs and definitions held by practitioners, a sample of officers and their managers were asked to consider various courses of action available to a hypothetical probation officer in response to a number of case situations involving risk decisions which unfolded in the extent of complexity and available information. Results showed a high level of response variation within and between teams and grades. Only the hostel team demonstrated any uniformity of choice, which appears to reflect their system of team discussion and decision-making on the riskiness of residents. In addition to choosing options for the hypothetical officer, participants were also asked to give reasons for their choices and these were analysed using 'grounded theory' analysis' (identifying and clustering recurring themes and key words and relating them in terms of explanatory concepts). This analysis is still in progress but it is already clear that there is no consensus on the definition of risk. In the absence of clear criteria for risk assessment, staff bring their own values, knowledge and experience to risk discussions. Indicators of Risk Where officers are employing a specific notion of risk, it is based upon: perceptions of 'unpredictable' behaviour by the offender; 2

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