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31 Policing Soc'y: Int'l J. Res. Pol'y 1 (2021)

handle is hein.journals/pgsty31 and id is 1 raw text is: POLICING AND SOCIETY
2021, VOL. 31, NO. 1, 1-19
https://doi.org/10.1080/10439463.2020.1839073

Routledge
Taylor & Francis Group

Forecasting the governance of harmful social media
communications: findings from the digital wildfire policy Delphi
Adam Edwards      a, Helena Webb      b William Housley    a, Roser Beneito-Montagut      a,
Rob Procter    C and Marina Jirotka    b
'School of Social Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK; bDepartment of Computer Science, University of Oxford,
Oxford, UK; cDepartment of Computer Science, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK
ABSTRACT                                                            ARTICLE HISTORY
Social media exhibits the core characteristics of emergent technologies. It  Received 23 September 2019
is disruptive of established ways of organising social relations, is evolving  Accepted 14 October 2020
at an exponential pace and its effects, including the production of new
'goods' and 'bads', are highly uncertain. Interest in understanding these
effects has intensified in the context of fears over so-called 'digital
wildfire', a policy construct referring to rapid propagation of harmful
communications, particularly those involving children and  other
vulnerable social groups but also those threatening the integrity of the
political process in liberal democracies. Even so, proponents of social
media are anxious to protect its potential for enhancing freedom of
speech and revitalising civil society through the redistribution of
editorial powers to shape public debate and facilitate the democratic
scrutiny and oversight of elites. This article reports findings of the
'Digital Wildfire policy Delphi', which asked key informants to consider
the political and technical feasibility of regulating harmful social media
communications and to forecast likely scenarios for their prospective
governance. Key forecasts are that forms of enforcement are limited,
stimulating 'self-regulation' will become increasingly important but,
more controversially, the likelihood is that harm to vulnerable groups
will be 'accommodated' in liberal democracies as a price to be paid for
the perceived political and economic benefits of unmoderated social
media. The article concludes with conjectures about future directions in
the policing of social media and their implications for shaping the
emerging research agenda.
1. Introduction
The governance and regulation of social media communications is a contemporary issue of technical
and political controversy. Social media platforms equip any citizen with access to the internet with
the capacity to broadcast their own opinions globally and in real-time. This circumvents traditional
editorial and censorial control over who can contribute to public debates. As such, social media com-
munications have been celebrated as a progressive disruption of powers hitherto wielded by press
barons, corporations and political parties (Edwards et al. 2013, Housley et al. 2014). However, this
enthusiasm has been increasingly qualified by a concern with the harmful effects of unmoderated,
'user-generated content' (UGC). Such communications include, inter alia, defamation and reputa-
tional damage to individuals, generic abuse and campaigns targeted at entire social demographics
CONTACT Adam Edwards   edwardsa2@cardiff.ac.uk
© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/),
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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