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118 Pol. Sci. Q. 1 (2003-2004)

handle is hein.journals/pclscceqry118 and id is 1 raw text is: Terror, Terrain, and Turnout: Explaining the 2002 Midterm Elections GARY C. JACOBSON Contrary to a great deal of the postelection commentary, the re- sults of the 2002 midterm congressional elections were neither surprising nor historically anomalous. Neither did they signal an end to the national partisan stalemate exposed by the 2000 elections.' Rather, the election results, summa- rized in Table 1, were entirely consistent with models treating midterm elec- tions as referenda on the administration and economy, and they reflected once again the distinct, evenly-balanced partisan divisions in the electorate that so- lidified during the Clinton administration. Moreover, reinforced by reappor- tionment and redistricting, the long-term trend toward increasing partisan con- sistency in voting across federal offices continued unabated in 2002. To be sure, Republicans enjoyed a modest victory, which in an era of evenly balanced legislative parties gave them control of the Senate and a slightly more comfortable House majority. And President George W. Bush and his party's operatives deserve full credit for a vigorous campaign that turned out the Re- publican vote, efforts essential to the victories in Minnesota, Georgia, and Mis- souri that led to the Senate's capture. The Republican victory was, however, much more a consequence of redistricting (in the House) and of the higher turnout among Republican loyalists than of any national shift in public senti- ment toward the party. It was also the undeniable, if unintended, gift of Osama bin Laden. The Democrats' losses stemmed not so much from inferior issue 'Gary C. Jacobson, A House and Senate Divided: The Clinton Legacy and the Congressional Elections of 2000, Political Science Quarterly 116 (Spring 2001): 5-27. GARY C. JACOBSON is professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego. His most recent books are The Politics of Congressional Elections (5th ed.) and The Logic of American Politics (coauthored with Samuel Kernell). Political Science Quarterly Volume 118 Number 1 2003

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