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47 Med. Sci. & L. 2 (2007)

handle is hein.journals/mdsclw47 and id is 1 raw text is: 2 Med. Sci. Law (2007) Vol. 47, No. 1 Statistics, Science and the Law INTRODUCTION Both our civil and our criminal courts routi- nely assess probabilities before reaching a conclusion in the case before them, although the standard of proof differs as between the two types of court. With the advent of DNA profiling, with 'random-match profiling' pro- ducing probabilities often exceeding a million to one, statistics now feature in court cases much more frequently than in the past. As recent cases have shown, the risk of the figures being misunderstood by juries (and by judges) has increased correspondingly. The four articles which follow discuss and highlight the dangers, and they express differing views as to whether statisticians should be permitted to give evidence commenting upon the statis- tics. They were first published in the Royal Statistical Society's magazine Significance. Usually we only publish original articles in the journal, but the importance of the subject and the absorbing content of the articles has persuaded us to make an exception in the belief that they will be of considerable interest to our readers. His Honour Judge I. Karsten, QC Legal Editor, Medicine, Science and the Law Reflections on the cot death cases Ray Hill Professor of Mathematics, the University of Salford, Lancashire ABSTRACT Sally Clark, Angela Cannings and Trupti Patel not only suffered the tragic sudden deaths of two or more babies. They were then accused, and in the first two cases convicted, of their murder. The misuse of statistics at Sally Clark's trial had profound con- sequences, especially for her, but also for the subsequent cases. Ray Hill reflects on the statistical issues involved. The cases of Clark, Cannings and Patel had many common features. In each case, the mother was acknowledged as being a caring parent, with no history of child abuse. In each case, the husband, family and friends were all fully supportive and convinced of the mother's innocence. In each case, the medical evidence against the mother was decidedly slim. And, in each case, a key prosecution witness was Professor Sir Roy Meadow. Professor Meadow is an eminent British paediatrician and an advocate of the dictum, known in Britain as 'Meadow's law'; that 'one cot death is a tragedy, two cot deaths is suspicious and, until the contrary is proved, three cot deaths is murder'. There is little doubt that such thinking played a part in the charging of Clark, Cannings and Patel. In each case, the first death was recorded as natural and it appears to have been the mere coin- cidence of a second or third death that served as the trigger for a criminal investigation. Let us consider the three cases in more detail. SALLY CLARK Sally Clark, a solicitor from Cheshire, lost her first baby, Christopher, in 1996. There was evidence of a respiratory infection and the death was recorded as natural. In 1998, the Clarks' second child, Harry, died at eight

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