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24 J. Quantitative Criminology 1 (2008)

handle is hein.journals/jquantc24 and id is 1 raw text is: J Quant Criminol (2008) 24:1 31 DOI 10.1007/s10940-007-9036-0 Analyzing Criminal Trajectory Profiles: Bridging Multilevel and Group-based Approaches Using Growth Mixture Modeling Frauke Kreuter - Bengt Muth6n Published online: 3 November 2007 © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007 Abstract Over the last 25 years, a life-course perspective on criminal behavior has assumed increasing prominence in the literature. This theoretical development has been accompanied by changes in the statistical models used to analyze criminological data. There are two main statistical modeling techniques currently used to model longitudinal data. These are growth curve models and latent class growth models, also known as group- based trajectory models. Using the well known Cambridge data and the Philadelphia cohort study, this article compares the two classical models-conventional growth curve model and group-based trajectory models. In addition, two growth mixture models are introduced that bridge the gap between conventional growth models and group-based trajectory models. For the Cambridge data, the different mixture models yield quite consistent inferences regarding the nature of the underlying trajectories of convictions. For the Philadelphia cohort study, the statistical indicators give stronger guidance on relative model fit. The main goals of this article are to contribute to the discussion about different modeling techniques for analyzing data from a life-course perspective and to provide a concrete step-by-step illustration of such an analysis and model checking. Keywords Latent class growth modeling - Growth mixture modeling- Zero-inflated Poisson distribution - Developmental trajectory groups Introduction Research on the relationship between age and criminal behavior continues to play a prominent role in the criminological literature (for overviews see Sampson and Laub 2005a; Piquero et al. 2003; Piquero 2007). The increasing availability of individual-level F. Kreuter (®) Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland, 1218 Lefrak Hall, College Park, MD 20742, USA e-mail: fkreuter@survey.umd.edu B. Muthen University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA Springer

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