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8 J. Mgmt. & Sustainability 1 (2018)

handle is hein.journals/jms8 and id is 1 raw text is: Journal of Management and Sustainability; Vol. 8, No. 1; 2018 ISSN 1925-4725 E-ISSN 1925-4733 Published by Canadian Center of Science and Education Sea-Level Rise and Species Conservation in Bangladesh's Sundarbans Region Susmita Dasgupta1, Mainul Huq1, Istiak Sobhan' & David Wheeler' 1Development Research Group, World Bank, Washington, DC, United States 2 World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, United States Correspondence: Susmita Dasgupta, Development Research Group, World Bank, Washington, DC, United States. Received: November 17, 2017 Accepted: January 24, 2018 Online Published: February 3, 2018 doi: 10.5539/jms.v8nlpl URL: https://doi.org/10.5539/jms.v8nlpl Abstract This paper develops a methodology for identifying high-priority species conservation areas in Bangladesh's Sundarbans region, an UNESCO World Heritage site, considering both species vulnerability and the likelihood of inundation by future sea-level rise (SLR). Our species vulnerability analysis develops a composite spatial vulnerability indicator based on total species counts, endangered species counts, endemicity, and four measures of extinction risk from the high-resolution range maps and conservation status assessments for 378 terrestrial vertebrate species provided by IUCN Bangladesh, IUCN International and BirdLife International. We extend the analysis by identifying areas where protection will fail if they are inundated by SLR in this century. We project SLR by 2100 at 120 cm, near the upper bound of the current consensus, and develop digital maps of the Sundarbans region that incorporate alternative assumptions about interim subsidence (8 cm, 35 cm) and deposition of alluvial sediment (0 cm, 40 cm). We overlay these maps with our composite species vulnerability map to produce SLR-risk-adjusted maps for priority assessment. While it would be highly desirable to protect all species of Sundarbans, resource scarcity may necessitate focusing protection on the highest-priority areas. Our analysis indicates that the highest-priority conservation status should be assigned to Sundarbans core region that has both high species vulnerability and the lowest likelihood of inundation in this century. We also identify other critical areas in four echelons of descending priority, depending upon their likelihood of inundation by sea-level rise. We hope that our methodology will contribute to cost-effective conservation management in the Sundarbans region. Keywords: Sundarbans, biodiversity, conservation, species vulnerability, climate change, sea-level rise 1. Introduction The Sundarbans is the largest continuous mangrove forest in the world, the majority of which (6,017 square kilometers) lies within the boundaries of Bangladesh. The rest is in West Bengal, India. The Bangladesh part comprises 4,143 km2 of land area and 1,874 km2 of water area. The region is known for its exceptional biodiversity, which includes 528 species of vascular plants (Rahman et al., 2015), 38 mammals, 297 birds, 34 reptiles, 9 amphibians, and numerous species of insects, fish, crustaceans, invertebrates and molluscs, along with diverse phytoplankton, fungi, bacteria and zooplankton (TUCN 2015). The Bangladesh Sundarbans was declared a UNESCO World Heritage site in 1997. The area is also internationally recognized under the Ramsar Convention. Although the Sundarbans' ecological importance and uniqueness are recognized by Bangladesh and the international community, and its conservation is an obligation under international conventions and treaties, the region is currently threatened by several natural factors and human actions. The area is still in active formation as its rivers change their course. Eastward meandering of the Ganges and Brahmaputra Rivers over time is affecting sedimentation and reducing freshwater inflows significantly. In addition, water supplies, sedimentation, and the region's topography and hydrology have all been affected by human actions such as construction of upstream dams, embankments to protect land from tides, over-exploitation of mangrove timber, urban and industrial pollution, and mangrove clearing for agriculture and aquaculture. Local human-induced losses will probably continue, and climate change is likely to aggravate the current problems.

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