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19 J. Int'l Trade L. & Pol'y 1 (2020)

handle is hein.journals/jitlp19 and id is 1 raw text is: The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at: https://www.emerald.com/insight/1477-0024.htm Are US antidumping cases being crowded out by other forms of protectionism? Prashant Desai Georgetown University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA, and Robert M. Feinberg Department of Economics, American University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA Abstract Purpose - The issue of substitutability between various modes of import protection has been studied by economists in various ways. Since President Donald Trump came into office and soon started imposing tariffs, the need by US firms to file antidumping (AD) cases would seem to have been reduced. This study aims to examine whether such a reduction in AD cases has occurred. Design/methodology/approach - Quarterly US AD filings via a negative binomial regression analysis are explained. Patterns based on data from 1995 through 2016 are obtained first and then predict US AD petitions for 2017 and 2018. Findings - The authors reject a hypothesis of substitution away from AD in the Trump era of general protectionism but do find some support for the notion that protection moves downstream, with greater than predicted AD filings in downstream metals sectors. Originality/value - This is the first study to examine the possibility of trade policy substitutability in the Trump era. Keywords Antidumping, Trade policy substitution, Trump tariffs Paper type Research paper Introduction The issue of substitutability between various modes of import protection has been studied by economists in various ways. One concern with much of the empirical work has been the endogeneity between alternative modes of protection; however, we now have a natural experiment for the USA. Since January 2017, when President Donald Trump came into office and soon started imposing tariffs, the need by US firms to file antidumping (AD) cases would seem to have been reduced. Arguably, these Trump tariffs are exogenous with respect to AD petitions. In what follows, we explain quarterly US AD filings, based on data from 1995 through 2016, and then - from this - predict US AD petitions for 2017 and 2018. We compare our estimate to the actual number of petitions in those years and interpret the difference as the Trump effect. Consider the timeline of President Trump's tariff policy. He had campaigned against existing and potential future trade agreements) but it was not anticipated by most economists that he would act - unilaterally - to impose large tariffs on taking office. Bloomberg News (2018) presents details on trade actions under the Trump Administration, JEL classification - F1 Forms of protectionism 1 Received 16 September 2019 Revised 19 November 2019 Accepted 19 November 2019 Journal orInternational Trade Law and Policy Vol. 19 No. 1, 2020 pp. 1-7 © Emerald Publishing Liird 1477-0024 DOI 10.1108JLP-0-2019-X00

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