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16 J. Int'l Trade L. & Pol'y 2 (2017)

handle is hein.journals/jitlp16 and id is 1 raw text is: The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at: www.emeraldinsight.com/1477-0024.htm JITLP 16,1 Received 6 September 2016 Revised 26 November 2016 Accepted 2 December 2016 Journal of International Trade Law and Policy Vol 16 No. 1, 2017 pp. 2-33 ©Emen ldPublishing Limitd 1477-0024 DOI 10.1108/JITLP-09-2016-0019 Identifying Thailand's high-potential export opportunities in ASEAN+3 countries Ludo Cuyvers Centre for ASEAN Studies, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium, and Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences, North West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa Ermie Steenkamp, Wilma Viviers and Riaan Rossouw Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences, North West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa, and Martin Cameron TRADE Research Advisory (Pty) Ltd, Potchefstroom, South Africa Abstract Purpose - This paper aims to identify Thailand's realistic export opportunities (REOs) in the ASEAN+3 countries (i.e. ASEAN, Greater China, Japan and South Korea), which together constitute an economically dynamic region and a strategic export destination for Thailand. Furthermore, the paper seeks to determine the extent to which Thailand already has a share in ASEAN+3 countries and where new opportunities lie. This allows the formulation of appropriate export promotion strategies for Thailand. Design/methodology/approach - The methodology used is a decision support model (DSM) which uses an extensive data-filtering system to systematically screen and eliminate less-promising product-country combinations to ultimately reveal high-potential REOs. Product-country combinations are screened on the basis of country risk; macro-economic country performance; market potential in terms of import growth and import market size; and market access conditions, including market concentration and the existence of trade barriers. The thus narrowed-down REOs are categorised according to Thailand's relative market share in, and the characteristics of, the identified import markets. Findings - The study reveals that the ASEAN+3 countries account for about 40 per cent of the total potential export value of Thailand's REOs in the world, with China leading the way (12.45 per cent), followed by Japan (8.56 per cent) and South Korea (6.23 per cent). However, Thailand has a relatively small or intermediately small market share in the majority of these REOs, pointing to the need for more offensive and exploratory export promotion strategies. Research limitations/implications - The ASEAN+3 countries - given that they are an abundant source of REOs for Thailand and are in Thailand's backyard - should receive more focused attention and resources in government export promotion efforts. The recent launch of the ASEAN Economic Community and the proposed establishment of an East Asia Free Trade Area lend weight to the idea of Thailand adopting a strong regional focus in its export activities. Practical implications - The insights derived from the study are valuable for export promotion officials, industry representatives and practising exporters alike, as they constitute an easy-to-digest snapshot of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 region. This makes for more efficient planning and prioritising of export development activities, and a more streamlined approach to resource allocation. Originality/value - Export promotion shows diminishing returns and requires sustainable strategies and interventions. The value in this paper lies in its description of an innovative market selection tool, the DSM, which is able to process and filter high volumes of information and arrive at a shortlist of high-potential REOs

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