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64 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (2020)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr64 and id is 1 raw text is: Article Journal of Conflict Resolution 2020, Vol. 64(1) 3-31 C © The Author(s) 2019 Clim atic Stress, t Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journals-permissions M igration, and Syrian DOI: 10.1177/0022002719864140 journals.sagepub.com/homne/icr Civil War Onset OSAGE Konstantin Ash' , and Nick Obradovich2 Abstract Syria recently suffered a once in 500-year meteorological drought followed by one of the worst conflicts of the twenty-first century. We exploit subnational variation in drought impact to examine associations between climatic stress and Syria's political unrest. Climatic stress may produce instability through both immediate hardship and, indirectly, internal migration. Consistent with the internal migration hypothesis, we find less severely drought-stricken Syrian regions more likely to experience protest. We employ nighttime lights as a proxy for population density to examine the association between climatic stress and internal displacement. We find climatic stress decreased nighttime light intensity during the drought period. Increases in nighttime lights from 2005 to 2010 are associated with added risk of protest in Sunni Arab areas, suggesting an influx of migrants bolstered local grievances. Our findings support the internal migration hypothesis and suggest extreme climate events may impact civil unrest via geographically and temporally indirect paths. Keywords Syria, civil wars, climate, migration The Syrian Civil War has been one of the most devastating conflicts of the twenty- first century. The conflict evolved from anti-government protests in the Southern 'School of Politics, Security and International Affairs, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA 2MIT Media Lab in the Scalable Cooperation group, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA Corresponding Author: Konstantin Ash, School of Politics, Security and International Affairs, University of Central Florida, 4297 Andromeda Loop N., Howard Phillips Hall Room 302, Orlando, FL 32816, USA. Email: konstantin.ash@ucf.edu

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