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48 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (2004)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr48 and id is 1 raw text is: How Do Leaders Make Decisions? A POLIHEURISTIC PERSPECTIVE ALEX MINTZ Department of Political Science Texas A&M University United Nations Studies Yale University Poliheuristic theory (PH) bridges the gap between cognitive and rational theories of decision making. PH postulates a two-stage decision process. During the first stage, the set of possible options is reduced by applying a noncompensatory principle to eliminate any alternative with an unacceptable return on a criti- cal, typically political, decision dimension. Once the choice set has been reduced to alternatives that are acceptable to the decision maker, the process moves to a second stage, during which the decision maker uses more analytic processing in an attempt to minimize risks and maximize benefits. In this article, the author applies poliheuristic theory to individual, sequential, and interactive decision settings. Subsequent articles in this issue offer theoretical extensions and multiple tests of the theory using multiple methods (formal, statis- tical, experimental). Keywords: Decision analysis; poliheuristic theory; multimethod appmoach H ow do foreign leaders, such as Yasser Arafat and Bashir Assad, make decisions? How did American presidents, such as George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Dwight Eisenhower, and Ronald Reagan, decide to use force or to refrain from using force? The leading decision paradigm in international relations is the rational actor, expected utility theory. According to this theory, nations are led by rational, forward-looking leaders who seek to maximize the expected gains of policy choices in a holistic and compensatory (additive) fashion (Bueno de Mesquita and Lalman 1992).' This special issue offers an alternative to the expected utility (EU) theory of deci- sion and other rational-analytic decision models. Poliheuristic (PH) choice theory postulates a two-stage decision process in which the menu for choice is narrowed ini- tially by a noncompensatory analysis that eliminates options by the use of one or more heuristics (cognitive shortcuts). Remaining alternatives are then evaluated in an attempt to minimize risks and maximize benefits (Mintz 1993). Examples of the noncompensatory heuristic that guides the elimination of options are threats to a leader's political survival and political constraints on the use of force. 1. Other important decision theories are bureaucratic politics, cybernetic theory, and prospect theory. JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, Vol. 48 No. 1, February 2004 3-13 DOI: 10.1177/0022002703261056 0 2004 Sage Publications

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